Wednesday, February 20, 2008

National League, Projected 2008 Standings

NL East

Mets 92-70
Phillies 87-75
Braves 83-79
Nationals 70-92
Marlins 70-92

Getting Johan Santana is enough to make the Mets the clear favorite. Overall, the Mets are pretty close to being able to compete with American League teams, probably the only NL team that can be said about. Marlins take a step back after dealing Willis and Cabrera, Nationals have an improved system but are not quite ready to take a step forward.

Central

Cubs 87-75
Brewers 84-78
Reds 78-84
Astros 75-87
Pirates 75-87
Cardinals 75-87

Looks like a 2 team race. The Cubs improved a bit by signing Fukudome, they could improve a little more and make themselves clear favorites if they can pull off the long rumored Brian Roberts trade. Brewers have improved over 2006 mostly by re-aligning their defense, with Billy Hall going back to the infield and Ryan Braun to left field. They won't get see any improvement from having Mike Cameron in center though, until at least May due to his suspension. Cardinals will run away with last place if Pujols really does miss a season with Tommy John surgery.

West

Diamondbacks 85-77
Dodgers 84-78
Padres 84-78
Rockies 77-85
Giants 72-90

Diamondbacks are unlikely to overperform their runs scored and allowed numbers this year, but my numbers say they won't need to. Adding Dan Haren to the rotation will reduce their runs allowed, and a year of experience for Young, Drew, Jackson, Upton, and Reynolds will add to their runs scored. Knock a win off the Dodgers if Juan Pierre is really going to play fulltime in left, with Ethier and Kemp platooning in right. You'd think it would be more than that, and it is offensively, but Pierre in left would cover more ground than any other left fielder in the league.

My numbers don't like the chances of the Rockies getting as good pitching as last year, other than Jeff Francis. It was a good run while it lasted. Giants have no chance, but at least they aren't going to allow many runs. They'll get a full year (hopefully) from Lincecum and Barry Zito is a better pitcher than the way he pitched last year.

8 Comments:

At 3:55 PM, Blogger j holz said...

If you add the projected records of all 30 teams, they have ten more losses than wins. That seems like an awful lot for rounding errors alone.

 
At 6:15 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Its just rounding. Add 5 wins to 5 randomly selected teams and you'd get .500. Its not something I checked, and I'd rather not publish these to one decimal place.

 
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