Sunday, February 03, 2008

First Basemen and Saving Errors

I've run the data for 1st basemen preventing errors, using a similar method as Tom Tango used for shortstops in this year's Hardball Times Annual. I looked at how many throwing errors (retrosheet gives you error type of field, drop, or throw) each infielder made, and how many throws were completed. Then I compare, for each infielder, how the first baseman did compared to how that infielder did with other 1st basemen.

I only looked at years 1985-2007, because I wasn't confidant in the data before that. While retrosheet still gives you error type, there are far fewer throwing errors in the 60's and 70's. Most likely its incomplete data, and errors are considered fielding errors by default if information is not complete.

Todd Helton came out the best, saving an estimated 71 errors, which is worth 57 runs. I used a run value of 0.8 runs per error saved. According to The Book, an error is slightly more harmful than a single, as sometimes the batter gets more than one base.

Others rating very well were Wally Joyner, Travis Lee, Steve Balboni, Pete O'Brien, Keith Hernandez, Richie Sexson, John Olerud, and J.T. Snow. Sexson is not a skilled defensive 1st baseman, but he is the size of an NBA power forward. Seattle infielders faced with a difficult throw can chose to err on the side of throwing it high, knowing that Sexson will come down with the rebound.

Down at the bottom there are people you'd expect, such as Mo Vaughn and Frank Thomas, some that are a little surprising, such as David Segui and Eric Karros, and at the very bottom of the list is a real surprise, Tino Martinez, who was considered a good defender.

Martinez is a fluke. He's -47 errors overall, and -38 of that is from his second basemen. Which second baseman in particular? Chuck Knoblauch. Tino was just unlucky enough to play the position when Knoblauch forgot how to throw.

Data for all 1B with 1000 or more throws received is here.

172 Comments:

At 11:17 PM, Blogger Justin said...

Wow, that's exciting work. I've always been a bit skeptical of first base "ground ball" fielding numbers, as they omit this part of a first baseman's job--and that's the part of their job that we most often hear about from media analysts. Great to see an attempt to actually estimate the impact of this part of their performance. Thank you for sharing these data!

I also think it's interesting how large the differences can be among different positions within the same first baseman. Pujols, for example, is +14 runs from his third baseman, and -13 runs from his shortstop. I imagine most of that's just random fluctuations. Only "real" reason I can think of for why a first baseman would be better receiving balls from one position than another is handedness. For example, maybe lefty first basemen struggle a bit on plays from second because they're backhanding the ball at times. I dunno, just thinking out loud. -j

 
At 2:55 PM, Anonymous MGL said...

It is not that hard to figure out, but I would certainly like to see a column of "per 150 (or 162) games." Other than knowing or looking up how many years each player played, I have NO idea how many runs each player is saving/costing per season. Without knowing that, I have NO idea how important this skill is.

And of course, we'd like to know how much of this IS a skill and how much is "luck."

Let's not get carries away with these WAWO. We ALWAYS need to know how much something is a skill before we conclude ANYTHING or make any assumptions. Of cours, the spread and magnitude of the numbers gives us an idea as to how much of these things are skill/luck, but we still can't really tell JUST by looking at the numbers. It would be nice to have some kind of "r" or something like that to help us do a mental regrssion toward the mean on the numbers. Or perhaps a column with regressed numbers (that actually reflect true talent estimates).

I can do a WAWO on anything I want and get lots of different numbers. Does not necessary mean that one player is "better" (in skill) than another, though. I still have to determine how much of what I am measuring is skill/luck.

 
At 5:14 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Interesting on the handedness, its worth looking into.

The per 1000 throws column should approximate one full season. I didn't pull innings when I ran this but it looks about right.

How much is skill/luck? Good question but I haven't started estimating that yet. To be continued... Unless somebody else wants to take a stab at it and save me some work.

 
At 5:36 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Lefty's come out better than righties all over the infield.

Per season and by position, lefties are:
2b +.4
3b +.1
ss +.4

righties:
2b -.3
3b -.3
ss -.4

 
At 10:07 AM, Anonymous weskelton said...

Your posting came up during a discussion we were having about 1b defense over at baseball-fever. (http://www.baseball-fever.com/showthread.php?t=87065) We noticed however that the file with the results is no longer available. Any chance you could repost, post it somewhere else or just email it to interested parties?

Thanks.

 
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