Thursday, January 31, 2008

Ready to kick some butt

SG, from Replacement Level Yankees, put the CHONE projections into Diamond Mind and ran 100 seasons. His average AL west Standings are:

Angels 90-72
Oakland 78-84
Rangers 76-86
Mariners 75-87

His simulations using his own projection system, CAIRO, has similar results with the Mariners and A's swapping places. I'm not sure what the timing was for each, whether they were run before or after the Haren and Swisher trades.

What I consider my official projections is where I sit down and decide to the best of my ability how much playing time each player/pitcher will get, and from that figure how many runs the team should score and allow, given their CHONE projections. I've done the preliminary work for the AL west, it will be official when I do all 6 division and make sure the wins/losses add up at the MLB level. I'll probably have the AL average 82 wins with the NL at 80 because of the talent disparity in the leagues. Anyway, it's more good news:

Angels 90-72
Mariner 78-84 (assuming Jones in RF and no Bedard)
Oakland 73-89
Rangers 71-91

I kind of hope the Bedard trade goes down, it's not going to make the Mariners more than an 82-83 win team, and if we can't beat 84 wins we don't deserve to be in the playoffs. Plus it means we don't have to worry about Jones turning into a superstar over the next 6 years.

We've won on paper. Now we just have to take care of business on the field.