Tuesday, December 18, 2007

CHONE pitcher projections, updated

Since last time I have added a few pitchers, namely the Japanese imports, updated projections for players traded or signed with new teams, and added a new run estimator.

Actually, pretty much every pitcher might have numbers changed a bit here and there, because I've updated the defense behind them, Twins will get a boost from Adam Everett at short, though Bartlett wasn't bad himself.

The old run estimator is a pitcher baseruns formula. That's still 99% of the model, but I've added a calculation for pitchers who have proven to beat their baseruns over the years. Minor leaguers will see no change, and the effect is miniscule for pitchers with little experience. It is heavily regressed, but pitchers with a long career record of beating their baseruns calculations will benefit. I'm looking at you, Tom Glavine and Livan Hernandez. Roy Oswalt is helped as well, though I did not expect that. For guys at the extremes, this will knock about .15 off their ERA.

Projections and more here.

17 Comments:

At 7:48 AM, Blogger SG said...

Chone, Is this the final version of the pitching projections? I'm going to work on building a DMB disk for these if you don't expect any more significant changes.

 
At 6:13 AM, Anonymous Chone said...

I just realized I still had Rivera as a free agent. There are a couple others that I missed, I'll repost this and the hitters before Saturday.

I'll leave the end of 2007 projections up on my site, but I'll probably do an update towards the end of spring training as well.

 
At 1:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very cool! Any chance of adding W/L and Saves, thereby making yourself a folk hero for fantasy players everywhere?

 
At 10:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chone, may I ask what changed for Arizona? The projections for AZ hitters are down across the board, from your November edition of the projections. It also seems like a quite uniform drop. Was it a change to the park factors, or some other issue? Thanks

 
At 2:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'll have to get back to you on the az projections. I' m out of town and away from my main computer. Off hand i can't think of any reason they should have changed

 
At 8:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Enjoy your Holiday!! Look forward to hearing from you when you get back.

 
At 9:14 PM, Blogger ed-hardy-shirts said...

 CLOTHES-WHOLESALE.US
straighthairgirl.blog126.fc2.com/
seriousblogging.com/crazygirlsshirts
free-blog-site.com/iammyself
d.hatena.ne.jp/hotfishing
www3.atword.jp/deepseaworld
kandypurity.blogspot.com
blog.oricon.co.jp/jacket-love-girl/
blog.goo.ne.jp/sweetyjackets
blog.360.yahoo.com/
azcentral.com/members/Blog/hotfish234
www2.atword.jp/chaussurespuma/
www2.atword.jp/edhardyshirts/
edhardywomens.blogspot.com/
weddingdressseason.com
seriousblogging.com/chaussurenike/
blog.goo.ne.jp/yutome
d.hatena.ne.jp/chaussuresport/
mensjacketscheap.blogspot.com/
pumashoes.cocolog-nifty.com/blog/
free-blog-site.com/mensjeans
d.hatena.ne.jp/womenjeanswholesale/
www2.atword.jp/wholesalejean/
blog.goo.ne.jp/cheapjeans
blog.360.yahoo.com/

 
At 9:14 PM, Blogger ed-hardy-shirts said...

Do you wannaghd hair straighteners for you own , we have many
cheap ghd hair straightenersin style and great,you can choose one from these
hair straighteners
Authentic chaussure puma
chaussure sport
And chaussure nike shoes
Come here to have a look of our Wholesale Jeans
Many fashionMens Jeans ,eye-catching
Womens Jeans ,and special out standing
Blue Jeans ,you can spend less money on our
Discount Jeans but gain really fine jeans, absolutely a great bargain.
www.crazypurchase.com
China Wholesale
wholesale from china
buy products wholesale
China Wholesalers
http://weddingdressseason.com

 
At 9:14 PM, Blogger ed-hardy-shirts said...

There are ed hardy shirts
,pretty ed hardy shirt for men,

ed hardy womens in the ed hardy online store

designed by ed hardy ,
many cheap ed hardy shirt ,glasses,caps,trouers ed hardy shirts on sale ,

You can go to edhardyshirts.com to have a look ,you may find one of ed hardy clothing fit for you
Top qualitymen's jacket,
These cheap jacket are on sale now,you can find
north face jackets inmage on our web

 
At 10:13 PM, Blogger poston said...

wholesale gemstone jewelry
wholesale crystal jewelry
crystal wholesale
rock crystal


crystal jewelry
wholesale jewelry
jewelry wholesale
cheap jewelry

 
At 10:47 PM, Blogger Peejay Li said...

I would like to be the supporter of yours. Thank you for sharing such a nice article.
chaussures puma
puma speed cat
Nike Tn Chaussures
requin tn
nike shox
puma shoes
puma CAT
puma basket
puma speed
baskets puma
puma sport
puma femmes
puma shox r4 torch
nike air max requin
nike shox r3
shox rival r3
tn plus
chaussures shox
nike shox r4 torch
air max tn requin
nike tn femme
pas cher nike
tn chaussures
nike rift
nike shox nz
chaussures shox
nike shox rival
shox rival
chaussures requin
jeans online
cheap armani jeans
cheap G-star jeans

 
At 1:43 AM, Blogger lucyliu said...

nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
nike shoe cart
puma future
cheap puma
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air
nike rift
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes
jeans shop
diesel jeans
levis jeans

 
At 5:22 PM, Blogger LAN said...

puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
Lucyliu IS Lucyliu
nike shoe cart
puma future
cheap puma
nike rift
jeans shop
diesel jeans
levis jeans
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes

 
At 4:56 AM, Blogger polo shirts said...

History of polo ralph lauren. Polo fashions had its humble beginnings in 1968 when tie salesman Ralph Lauren gave it a kick start. By 1969 he had a boutique polo ralph lauren factory stores within the Manhattan department store Bloomingdale's. ... Brands and luxury standard. Since Ralph Lauren's first brand, Polo Ralph Lauren, was launched, the company has expanded to include a variety of luxury brands such as Polo Golf, Polo Denim, Polo Sport. You can buy cheap Ralph Lauren Clothing at Ralph Lauren outlet.Also We provide polo shirts
Ralph Lauren polo shirt, 50% OFF! polo ralph lauren outlet online is your best choice!In 2006, polo ralph lauren outlet became the first designer in Wimbledon's 133-year history to create official uniforms for the tournament. As part of this year's event, which starts next week, polo ralph lauren sale will introduces the first ... determination to maintain and enhance the values for which our two brands are famous throughout the world. The rugby ralph lauren brand brings to Wimbledon the look of timeless elegance, drawing on our rich history and traditions

 
At 11:40 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

You simply link to one site and discount links of london that site in turn links to another site. charms bracelets That third site then links to you and completes a perfect web charms links of london that is untraceable by anything Google can do.This can build your links of london sweetie watches Serps immensely and give you a major edge over all your competition. links of london ring uk You would be surprised just how fast Google can move links of london silver necklace you up in rankings.Now is the time to stop wasting your time on useless link building that does nothing links of london silver earrings and start using a system that is prove to work..

 
At 8:55 PM, Blogger leader said...

It is very important to store sterling pandora charms silver jewelry properly when it is not used. pandora charm The ideal place to store sterling silver jewelry is cool and away from sunlight. pandora charms uk Heat and light will turn a silver jewelry yellow and cause it to tarnish quickly. pandora charms sale Even indoor light source like florescent lights or light bulbs turn the color of silver jewelry over time. If you expect not to wear a certain piece for a long time, new pandora charms put it in a air-tight bag and store it in a drawer. Make sure the silver jewelry is not plated with any other metal before using the silver-dip or the plating will be damaged.

 
At 11:46 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Howdy! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering
if you knew where I could find a captcha plugin for
my comment form? I'm using the same blog platform as yours and I'm having problems finding
one? Thanks a lot!

my weblog :: michael kors hudson downtown shoulder tote

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home