Tuesday, December 18, 2007

CHONE pitcher projections, updated

Since last time I have added a few pitchers, namely the Japanese imports, updated projections for players traded or signed with new teams, and added a new run estimator.

Actually, pretty much every pitcher might have numbers changed a bit here and there, because I've updated the defense behind them, Twins will get a boost from Adam Everett at short, though Bartlett wasn't bad himself.

The old run estimator is a pitcher baseruns formula. That's still 99% of the model, but I've added a calculation for pitchers who have proven to beat their baseruns over the years. Minor leaguers will see no change, and the effect is miniscule for pitchers with little experience. It is heavily regressed, but pitchers with a long career record of beating their baseruns calculations will benefit. I'm looking at you, Tom Glavine and Livan Hernandez. Roy Oswalt is helped as well, though I did not expect that. For guys at the extremes, this will knock about .15 off their ERA.

Projections and more here.

8 Comments:

At 7:48 AM, Blogger SG said...

Chone, Is this the final version of the pitching projections? I'm going to work on building a DMB disk for these if you don't expect any more significant changes.

 
At 6:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I just realized I still had Rivera as a free agent. There are a couple others that I missed, I'll repost this and the hitters before Saturday.

I'll leave the end of 2007 projections up on my site, but I'll probably do an update towards the end of spring training as well.

 
At 1:05 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Very cool! Any chance of adding W/L and Saves, thereby making yourself a folk hero for fantasy players everywhere?

 
At 10:37 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Chone, may I ask what changed for Arizona? The projections for AZ hitters are down across the board, from your November edition of the projections. It also seems like a quite uniform drop. Was it a change to the park factors, or some other issue? Thanks

 
At 2:46 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'll have to get back to you on the az projections. I' m out of town and away from my main computer. Off hand i can't think of any reason they should have changed

 
At 8:28 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Enjoy your Holiday!! Look forward to hearing from you when you get back.

 
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