Monday, December 17, 2007

Outfielder wins over replacement

Here's a real simple, quick way to compare player career value:

Go to Baseballreference.com and get the player's batting wins statistic. This is already park and league adjusted. Sean Forman's already done the calculations for you. Take career plate appearances, and divide by 650. Multiply the result by 2, add to batting wins.

I some time figuring this out for HOF candidate outfielders and expanded to get most of the recent outfielders who had good to great careers, and figured I'd better post something to bookmark the BTF thread.

Sammy Sosa should not be considered a sure thing, despite the 600 homers, and that has nothing to do with whether I think he used steroids. He's still a candidate, and putting Sammy in would not be a crazy idea, but as an all-around player he probably wasn't quite as good as Dwight Evans or Larry Walker. Evans got little support for the HOF, and Walker may not either in 3 years. Sammy hit a lot of homers, and because of that he was great for about 5 years, but outside of those years he just wasn't that great a player. And Vlad has just as much career value as Sosa right now, even if he never played another game.

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