Finally, the hitter projections
Download away here:
Last year I projected every major leaguer, and selected a group of top minor leaguers. This year I started to sort out the minor leaguers to project, and decided to not to take the time to select them. Instead, why not see if my computer can handle them all?
And it did, I have every batter who played in a full season league in 2007. Maybe not everyone, I probably went with a playing time cutoff to knock the pitchers out somewhere along the line, but I've got over 2000 players here, including the return of Dallas McPherson and the latest Japanese star, Kosuke Fukudome.
Playing time estimates for CHONE are intentionally optimistic, I have a few variations of playing time estimators for every player, and in the end CHONE selects the one that gives a player the most playing time. So there's more playing time projected for all these players than can actually be had, scrubs are more likely to be projected at 350 PA than 50, but durable players like Rollins and Tejada will be projected for more time than injury prone types like Nomar or McPherson.
Its a csv file, for you internet explorer users it will open up in excel for you, assuming you have excel. For firefox users, you are probably computer savvy and this will seem painfully obvious, but if not it will open into a text file, just copy into excel, paste, and use the text to columns feature to use this. I tried uploading this into excel but for some reason the file kept getting corrupted. I tried CSV and it worked, with the added bonus that CSV files are 1/3 the size.
posted by Chone Smith @ 7:09 PM
14 comments
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14 Comments:
I right-clicked and hit Save As, and it saved it as a .csv on my desktop. Which defaults to opening in excel. May be easier than the copy/paste/text-to-columns thing. Thanks for your work on these, can't wait to see it.
I was wondering about the prediction for Torii Hunter's OBP. .345 is way above his way above his career OBP (.324), and even above his career high(.337); I was just curious as to how your system arrives at that number. Thanks.
I'll have to check. It could be a data error.
It might just be a case of him projected as a free agent. Free agents are projected to play in an average park against a difficulty level 1/2 way between AL and NL.
The AL is a much tougher league to play in, so I'll have to check what his projected OBP would be if he stayed with the Twins.
Torii's been amazingly consistent over the last 4 years, his OBP has been between .330 and .337. CHONE uses 4 years of data to make the projection.
As he ages, he should walk more but lose some on the BA. I'll still check for a data error when I get home tonight but it looks like the league adjustment is responsible.
With Hunter there are no data errors. Its just the league adjustment. If he resigned with the Twins his projection would be 276/336/473.
Posada's projection takes a hit resigning with the Yanks, he's now at 277/377/458.
I did find a few data errors - most of them due to the player IDs. Mostly minor leaguers, but Bill Hall had one and his projection should be 258/327/453.
I'll keep trying to rid my set of errors, and also update as free agents sign, and most likely put an update on my website 2-3 times before the season starts.
Thanks for that- I didn't take the partial league adjustment into account.
max rameirez is now with tex, after being tradined by clev
Thanks on Ramirez. I'll also have Bonds updated next time - projected for the California Penal League.
How exactly is the AL a "much tougher league to play in" especially for Torii Hunter? The best pitcher in the league is on his team, he doesn't play in the AL East, and his home park is turf which helps his speed and groundballs getting through. And he still has a VERY mediocre ~.330 career OBP. I just don't see how this makes any sense, especially when Jones has a .020 point higher career OBP, as well as higher HR and RBI avg's. Maybe you're right, I'd like to see your predictions for this past year. I also think you're shorting Ryan Zimmerman, who def found a more powerful stroke this year and is moving into a new park that will play FAR more neutral than RFK.
AL is tougher - that is based on studying players that have moved between leagues. The last few seasons of interleague play confirms it. He doesn't face Santana but faces more than his share of Sabathia, Carmona, and Verlander. Who cares about the AL East? So he doesn't face the Red Sox as much as Derek Jeter does - he also doesn't get to fatten up on Oriole or Devil Ray pitching.
Projections for last year - go to "archives on my blog, and you'll find them in January 2007.
Zimmerman - good point, perhaps when I update I should put the Nats in a neutral NL park.
Awesome stuff again -- many thanks! I am trying to sort out the major leaguers; would it be possible for you to add a column that denoted whether the player is a major or minor leaguer?
According to Baseball-reference - The Juan Diaz who played in the Seattle system was a 22 yo ss not the 34 yo 1b. There should be a rule that no minor league can take a former major leaguers name!
Incredible stuff Chone. Thank you. Is there a way for you to easily add the positions?
Hey Chone,
I'm just starting a baseball blog myself and I'm so impressed with all that you've done. I was checking out RotoAuthority the other day, and the author was projecting numbers by using projections from Bill James, Baseball HQ, and CHONE.
I read another article that had your system right up there with PECOTA. Keep up the great work; you're definitely a role model to all the aspiring baseball bloggers out there.
And if you ever get a chance, feel free to check out fantasymlbtips.com and to offer me any advice!
Best of luck in 2008, Chone!
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