Lackey for CY
The candidates are big John, Cleveland's two aces, and 20 game winner Josh Beckett. Right now, Lackey is .05 points behind Carmona for the ERA lead, He needs to overtake him for a decent shot at the award. A 7 inning, 1 ER game or better will do the trick, and getting 19 wins would help too.
As for who deserves the award, I looked at park adjusted runs allowed vs replacement. Replacement level is set at 1.25 the league average, and I include an adjustment for defensive support, based on Hardball Time's team defense rating, prorated to the pitcher's balls in play allowed.
Anyway, the Cleveland guys lead at +70, third is Scott Kazmir, though his ERA is 3.48 he gets a ton of credit for succeeding in spite of the horrible Tampa Bay defense. Lackey comes in at +64, good for 4th place. A shutout against the A's would put him in the lead.
Lets go big John!