Friday, September 28, 2007

Lackey for CY

The candidates are big John, Cleveland's two aces, and 20 game winner Josh Beckett. Right now, Lackey is .05 points behind Carmona for the ERA lead, He needs to overtake him for a decent shot at the award. A 7 inning, 1 ER game or better will do the trick, and getting 19 wins would help too.

As for who deserves the award, I looked at park adjusted runs allowed vs replacement. Replacement level is set at 1.25 the league average, and I include an adjustment for defensive support, based on Hardball Time's team defense rating, prorated to the pitcher's balls in play allowed.

Anyway, the Cleveland guys lead at +70, third is Scott Kazmir, though his ERA is 3.48 he gets a ton of credit for succeeding in spite of the horrible Tampa Bay defense. Lackey comes in at +64, good for 4th place. A shutout against the A's would put him in the lead.

Lets go big John!


At 9:40 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

I love it when John does more than I hope for. I asked for 7 innings and one run and he gives a shutout.

Lackey is the AL ERA leader now. Only one win less than Beckett. He deserves the Cy, and if he doesn't win it it will only be because of stupid voters.

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