Saturday, August 18, 2007

K-Rod and rest

Last night's game, where Vlad bailed out K-Rod, was not a long rest situation, since he pitched the day before in Toronto. The Toronto game, however, was. K-Rod seems to lose his release point when he has a long layoff between outings. Here are his career results by day of rest:

Days ERA BB%
0-1 2.15 10.1
2-3 1.73 11.3
4+ 4.21 9.3

He actually walks fewer batters when he's on long rest, but the ERA doubles. My theory is that the walks don't tell the whole story, if his control is off he has to throw more fastballs and less of the nasty sliders, and becomes much more hittable.

Strikeout rate:

Days
0-1 32.9
2-3 34.6
4+ 29.3

Not a huge difference.

Homeruns per at bat:
0-1 1.6%
2-3 2.0
4+ 6.6

There's the problem. Shaky control means hitters can sit on a get-me-over pitch instead of not knowing when he'll break out the killer slider.

Still, I don't know what to do about it. Giving him the 9th of a 10-2 game instead of Greg Jones just to get some work in may not be the answer. It sure wasn't for Troy Percival.

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