Wednesday, February 13, 2008

AL projected Standings

Using the CHONE projections, and what I currently assume will be each team's lineup. All trades, signings up to today are considered.

AL East
Red Sox 92-70
Yankees 92-70
Rays 89-73
Blue Jays 83-79
Orioles 65-97

Right now I'm assuming that Curt Schilling does little for the Red Sox in light of his injury concerns. If Schilling were 100% they'd be 94-95 wins. They are unlikely to push Buchholz and Lester for 180-200 innings each, so I'm assuming significant innings for some not so good pitchers. Devil Rays? WTF? My projections are kind of boring for the AL, not much different than last years, except for this. I'll have to explain in more detail in another post sometime. Orioles are the worst team in the league, I have little doubt about that.

AL Central
Indians 92-70
Tigers 91-71
White Sox 76-86
Twins 76-86
Royals 70-92

Nothing to see here, looks like last year. Should be a pretty good fight with the East teams for the 3 available playoff spots.

AL West
Angels 91-71
Mariners 83-79
Athletics 75-87
Rangers 72-90

Here's hoping nothing unexpected happens.

I hope the National League has a few more bold prediciton opportunities.

312 Comments:

At 3:52 AM, Blogger Brandon Heikoop said...

Nice wrap-up of the projections. I went out and suggested the Rays as my team to watch out for in 2008 with the expectation that they make the playoffs.

 
At 8:24 AM, Blogger SG said...

Sean, my projections like the Rays to improve quite a bit too, although I have them around .500. If you want me to use your depth charts instead of the ones I'm using now for the Diamond Mind sims I'll be running let me know.

 
At 8:59 AM, Anonymous Joe said...

I made my friend a bet about two weeks ago (loser buys a bottle of crown) that the top of the AL East Standings will be Yankees, Red Sox, RAYS

Thanks for giving me some hope :)

 
At 2:49 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

SG,

Here's how much PA I assigned to each position player:

1b Pena 561
2b Iwamura 551
3b Longoria 518
ss Bartlett 568
if Zobrist 282
c Navarro 407
c Riggans 214
dh Floyd 402
of/dh Gomes 429
of Upton 579
of Crawford 603
of Baldelli 353
of Ruggiano 418

Starters
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Garza
Shields
Sonnanstine
Jackson

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Wheeler
Glover
Dohmann
Salas

Have you run a ZIPS simulation? I see some people running them and getting the A's as division winners, even though the ZIPs projections look only slightly more friendly to the A's than the CHONE projections. I wonder if it all depends on how you set up the sim.

 
At 3:25 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Those pitchers all get the exact innings listed in the CHONE projection sheet.

A team should pitch on average, 1425 innings, so there are 199 left over - I apply leftover innings at a replacement level rate instead of going too deep into a depth chart. For the Rays, I need 93 more innings from the starters at a 5.96 ERA, and 106 from the pen at a 5.68 ERA.

 
At 6:31 PM, Blogger SG said...

OK, those look pretty close to the depth charts I'm using, except I was expecting Longoria to be a mid-season callup. Sounds like he may start the year in the bigs so I'll adjust that.

I did run 100 ZiPS and I got the A's winning the division most frequently. From what I can see the A's are slugging about 10 pts higher in Diamond Mind than what they were projected to do in ZiPS, so Dan may need to look at why that's happening.

CAIRO, Hardball Times and PECOTA sims so far all like your Halos, so don't worry yet.

 
At 3:41 PM, Anonymous Richard said...

Hey SG, didn't Zips also like the A's and downgrade the Angels in 2007, when you ran your projections for all the systems? I only ask because I wonder if it's something systemic, it seems wierd that it would happen 2 years in a row.

 
At 9:45 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

how many times did you run the projections? if you do it 100 times would the Rays still average 89 wins?

 
At 11:02 AM, Blogger SG said...

richard, you're right. Last year, ZiPS picked Oakland over the Angels, and CHONE/PECOTA/Diamond Mind all picked the Angels. Maybe Dan Szymborski is a closet A's fan? It could be an issue with how he sets up the disk.

 
At 11:05 AM, Blogger SG said...

anonymous, Chone doesn't run these through Diamond Mind so it's just a one-shot projection based on depth charts. I'm running them through Diamond Mind now and Tampa's right around 88 wins on average so far using CHONE. They're a little worse in the other systems, but still around .500 or so.

 
At 5:48 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

wow...i don't know what diamond mind is, but, i will be so happy if the rays win 88 games.

 
At 10:19 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

SG ZIPS liked the A's more in '07 b/c it didn't anticipate the record number of injuries they had. Add full seasons from Harden, Piazza, Street, Duchscherer, Loaiza, Chavez, Crosby, Buck, Bradley, and Kotsay and the A's season would have been a lot different.

 
At 5:03 PM, Anonymous Chone said...

Injuries happen and they suck. Some teams are strong enough to deal with them and some teams are weak.

Take a healthy A's team and have them face a healthy Kendrick, Kotchman, Napoli, Rivera, Colon, Figgins, and Speier for a full season. The Angels still dominate the division.

There is a place for A's fans to cry about how tough their injuries are, its called Athletics Nation. Please don't bring that to an Angels blog.

 
At 11:48 AM, Blogger Webmeister said...

I wrote my own baseball simulator, probably somewhat similar to Diamond Mind. I am running seasonal and divisional simulations for each team using 2008 ZIPS projections as data input. The 89 win projection from the Rays caught my eye, so I quickly ran a 25 season sim for them using their 2008 schedule and they average 81.76 and a StdDev of 5.66 (High: 93, Low: 71).

vr, Xei

 
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At 7:24 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

your Rays projection is looking pretty good

 
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