Friday, February 22, 2008

Average Saves, by team win total

A rough approximation for the number of saves a team should expect by their win level would be 30 + (Wins-60) * 0.5. It wouldn't work for teams under the 60 win mark, but there aren't many of those anyway. I have the lowly Orioles projected at 65 wins, and nobody else less than that.

Keep this in mind for fantasy drafts. There isn't too much of a difference in save opportunities for pitchers on bad teams. The good teams tend to win blowout more often, and take the save out of the equation.

6 Comments:

At 8:06 AM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

An even simpler equation would be Team Saves = Wins * 0.5, but I don't know if the relationship would hold below 60 wins or over 100, there aren't enough teams like that to make a decent sample.

 
At 8:20 AM, Anonymous tangotiger said...

I don't know why you'd say it "wouldn't" work for teams under 60 wins. Your new equation in the comments is exactly the same as the one in the blog, and it makes it fairly clear as to the slope and intercepts of the equation.

 
At 12:55 PM, Anonymous Chone said...

I shouldn't have said it wouldn't work, just that it may not work. We just don't have enough data on teams like that. Then again, maybe it does.

Equation is the same, I didn't run a best fit and just eyeballed it, then only after I posted did I realize it's the same thing with a zero intercept.

 
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