This is it, the last projections I'm going to do before the 2007 season ends. I really need to hold myself to that. I do this because I like it, and for every tiny improvement I can put into the projection, I probably think of 10 others I could do if I put about 50,000 more hours into it.
Once I assemble the team projections, I may add pitcher wins and losses in, but there should be no other changes. I really need to move on to other things, like have a life.
I've added runs over replacement to the pitcher projections. Replacement level is team specific, and I get this by feeding a generic replacement level line into the system. I haven't put too much effort into this. I'm using a starter replacement level 6% higher than that for relievers. I treat anyone with 120 or more projected inning as a starter and all other as relievers. I just wanted a quick measure to see where Barry Zito ranked, there's a lot of questions on him: Is he an ace or just a mid-rotation innings eater? I have him ranked around #40, so ideally, he's not a #1 but a #2. The last projection change I made was converting Joel Piniero to a reliever. He gets better, but he's not really any better than Donnelly. He could pitch OK, keep the job, and rack up 30-40 saves in a medicore way like Ryan Dempster, but I'm hoping the Donkey outpitches him and takes the job.
For hitter's I've added weighted on base average for each hitter - a better measure than OPS. I'm guessing where each player will hit in their team's batting order and using that to project Runs and RBI. All non-starters have a default '8' for lineup position.
Download away here: CHONE