Saturday, January 06, 2007

CHONE 2.1

This is it, the last projections I'm going to do before the 2007 season ends. I really need to hold myself to that. I do this because I like it, and for every tiny improvement I can put into the projection, I probably think of 10 others I could do if I put about 50,000 more hours into it.

Once I assemble the team projections, I may add pitcher wins and losses in, but there should be no other changes. I really need to move on to other things, like have a life.

I've added runs over replacement to the pitcher projections. Replacement level is team specific, and I get this by feeding a generic replacement level line into the system. I haven't put too much effort into this. I'm using a starter replacement level 6% higher than that for relievers. I treat anyone with 120 or more projected inning as a starter and all other as relievers. I just wanted a quick measure to see where Barry Zito ranked, there's a lot of questions on him: Is he an ace or just a mid-rotation innings eater? I have him ranked around #40, so ideally, he's not a #1 but a #2. The last projection change I made was converting Joel Piniero to a reliever. He gets better, but he's not really any better than Donnelly. He could pitch OK, keep the job, and rack up 30-40 saves in a medicore way like Ryan Dempster, but I'm hoping the Donkey outpitches him and takes the job.

For hitter's I've added weighted on base average for each hitter - a better measure than OPS. I'm guessing where each player will hit in their team's batting order and using that to project Runs and RBI. All non-starters have a default '8' for lineup position.

Download away here: CHONE

161 Comments:

At 3:40 PM, Blogger CSG said...

I've really enjoyed the work you've produced of late. Would you mind if I used some of your Chone projections on my blog? I'd like to do a rough projection of the Mariners in 2007, using the various available projection systems.

 
At 4:59 PM, Anonymous Chone said...

Go ahead. Post a link in these comments when you're done and I'll check it out.

 
At 1:38 PM, Blogger Tangotiger said...

I use a 0.60 runs/9IP gap between the average starter and average reliever.

Your totals shows your "starter" as being +1.01 runs per 9IP above replacement (which is fine), but the average "reliever" being +0.70 above replacement.

I don't know how many true starters are in your reliever pool, so your runs over rep for your "reliever" group can be fine, but it's hard to tell. Mark Prior for example is in the reliever group.

***

I know all this is besides the point, and any changes will be rather tiny anyway. Just wanted to bring it up.

 
At 2:08 PM, Anonymous Chone said...

Your're right.

I didn't spend too much time on replacement, just something quick and dirty.

Randy Wolf too. I just put anyone with fewer than 120 innings in the reliever pool, since I dropped games started long before the final results.

 
At 8:35 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

First time posting...I really appreciate the work you're doing for us fantasy baseball enthusiasts out there.

I have a question about your projections though. How did you project plate appearances? For example, you projected Hideki Matsui's PA to be 500. He had a freak injury last year that cost him almost the entire season. Prior to last year, he's played in every single one of his team's games and in fact averaged 686 PA per season. Does this one injury make him that much more injury prone? enough to make his plate appearances drop by almost 200 compared to what he would've been projected for a year ago? To me, the injury to Matsui can happen to anyone, even the most durable of players. *shrugs* I just wanted to get some insight into this before I run with these projections for my fantasy baseball team this year.

 
At 6:49 AM, Anonymous Chone said...

Predicting playing time is something I've spent the least amount of thime on. My efforts were mainly focused on determining the quality of performance.

For playing time, I settled on 2 approaches, one looks at a 4 year average, the other weights recent playing time a little more. I used the higher of two estimates.

I have made no distinction between freak injuries like Matsui's or chronic injuries like JD Drew. If I did it for one, I'd have to do it for 700+ players.

Feel free to prorate any projection here to whatever you think is the best estimate for playing time.

 
At 12:43 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ok, I understand why you did it that way. Attempting to assess the injury risk of every player may even lead to bias, unless there was a sabremetric technique to do it. We almost need something like what they had in that Numb3rs episode about fantasy baseball.

 
At 12:48 PM, Anonymous Chone said...

Sig Mejdal had an injury probability article in the Bill James handbook 2 years ago.

I don't know if his stuff actually works, but I don't have the injury database to come up with something like that, so the quick and dirty estimate is just based in some way on past playing time.

I think he's working for the St Louis Cardinals now. I really wonder how they come up with a guy in Mark Mulder's very questionable position being worth 18 million over what will probably be 1.5 seasons.

 
At 6:56 PM, Blogger CSG said...

Here it is. Projecting the Mariners in 2007.

 
At 11:31 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I read in this post (http://lanaheimangelfan.blogspot.com/2007/01/newest-projections.html) that you used batted ball data for pitchers. Did you use any batted ball data for hitters?

 
At 12:13 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Could you explain runs over replacement a little bit more, what it tells us. How important do you think it is to look at in drafting a fantasy team?

 
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