Pecota
I finally tested Pecota vs the others. For hitters with minimum of 500 AB, Pecota had an r = .736. Very impressive, beating Ron Shandler's second place of .702. Their method of finding comparable players might just be on to something.
For pitchers, they were at .451, better than several others, but in second place after ZIPS.
posted by Chone Smith @ 7:37 PM
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14 Comments:
So does averaging Pecota with any of the others give us any improvement over Pecota itself?
Good question. I'll look into it.
Chone, great job! I tried to do this study, but had trouble getting the data into a single file. Did you use XLookup? I'd like to extend your work to include Rototimes and Fantistics.
Eric, email me through my BTF handle and I can send you something.
I used excel lookups, but had to heavily edit it when names are a little different (Griffey, Ken vs Griffey Jr, Ken, Gonzalez, Alex vs Gonzalez, Sea Bass).
I was pleasantly surprised to see in the Zips file Dan used "Sea Bass" just like I do.
"So does averaging Pecota with any of the others give us any improvement over Pecota itself?"
Answer is no. For 2006, Pecota kicked all their combined butts.
Pecota added into the mix was .725, and adding Pecota to each individually, the best I get is .720 of Pecota + Shandler.
What stats were you using for pitching? I've always found ZiP's to be decent for hitting and terrible for pitching so surprised they came in 1st.
Projected ERA vs actual ERA.
Really, all the systems were about the same for pitching, the difference from best to worst is not significant.
So which projection systems did you evaluate?
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