More Projection stuff
I've added in Marcel, Bill James, and Ron Shandler's projection OPS to the mix. I'm only looking at 114 players who had 500 or more AB, and I had to eliminate a few (Dan Uggla and Hanley Ramirez among others) because not all systems projected minor leaguers. Kenji Johjima had to go, as only ZIPs and CHONE even tried to project him (very well I might add). I don't have access to Baseball Prospectus 2006, so I'll look at Pecota in a week or so.
Here's the results:
So Chone is a little behind the more established systems, but at least it passes the monkey test. As I've read before, there's not a whole lot of room to improve. Shandler, the king of fantasy baseball, beats a first year amateur by 2.5%.
But there's something real interesting here. These algorithms all seems to have different workings. They like different players better than others. For example, Shandler had Paul Konerko at .921 - and Konerko did better than that, totally destroying the other projections, in the .850 range. But Shandler missed the boat on Grady Sizemore, projecting only .774. Sizemore beat all of our projections, but the other systems at least had him in the .800's
Take an average of the top 4 projection systems, and we can get an r of .714! (Adding Marcel subtracts from the combined r, all the others add). So the strategy should be to collect all the projection systems that pass the monkey test, combine them, and we have a projection that reaches uncharted waters in accuracy!
Give this a try, and dominate your fantasy league.