Monday, October 16, 2006

Free agent pitchers, the projections

Free agent pitchers

From my projection system. Barry Zito does not rank at the top of the list, though he will probably get the most money. Well, either him or Jason Schmidt. Zito is the youngest of the top guys, so he'll be worth more of long term contract than guys like Clemens and Maddux, who for all I know might retire.

The stats all assume that each pitcher will pitch in a neutral park, neutral league (I guess a theoretical one that has them facing an equal number of national and american league teams) and average defense.

The dollar value is from a formula I've been playing around with. I have no idea if its useful or not. Its based on wins provided above replacement, and assumes that wins at the high end are more valuable. In other words, five starters who are 1 win over replacement (but still below average) are not worth as much as one pitcher who is 5 wins over replacement (i.e. a superstar pitcher).

Its a good thing the Angels have 6 starters ready to go (or hopefully, in Bart's case). Its a pretty weak group. The best relievers are probably Mike Timlin, Justin Speier, and Aaron Fultz. Kerry Wood could be intriguing as a reliever. But for the most part, teams should hope their farm systems can fill needs. It would be very difficult to build a staff from this tired out crew.

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