Projections 2.0
Revised 2007 projections. I've beefed up the formuli and if I'm lucky these might be 0.1% more accurate than the last run. I've left version 1.0 in the spreadsheet for comparisons, the minor leaguers have not been updated yet.
Runs and RBI have been added, as I've added players to the team they'll be playing for and where they should bat in the order for 2007. Default batting position is 8, that's what I have for all the backups.
CHONE
Next I'll work on pitchers.
Update 12-10-06: Pitchers added. Minor leaguers mixed in with the others, only the most current projections are here now.
posted by Chone Smith @ 9:23 PM
61 comments
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61 Comments:
Without a detailed analysis, my prediction for rookies of the year will be 2 guys named Young: Chris and Delmon.
Though Dice-K is probably the favorite if he is signed. Alex Gordon would be way up there but the Royals may keep him in AAA too long.
I can't wait to see. I just upgraded from a 15" to a 19" widescreen monitor. Need baseball games to watch.
Chone--
What's the Matsuzaka projection you were drooling over?
Around 3.25 ERA in context neutral. Probably a bit higher in Fenway, especially if Manny stays in LF. Look for pitchers here in the next week or two.
Great, but how many IP about? What kind of K/BB numbers? I need a baseball fix!
Thanks.
Are the park adjusted lwts per 600 or per the predicted number of Abs for the player?
per 600 plate appearances.
Darren, the innings will probably be around 180-190. Its based on his innings pitched in Japan the last 3 years.
K/W is really good. Don't have it in front of me, but 180-55 might be close.
OK, here's the initial projection, not to context neutral but to the Red Sox. This won't be final, as I have to work in 2007 defensive projections, update park factors, and in general try to make improvements in the system.
187 IP
178 H
15 HR
51-166 W-K
3.60 ERA
I think that makes Dice-K the ace.
Thanks AROM. I like your projection system--it reinforces my biases quite well!
Good stuff Chone. I'll add this to my Diamond Mind projections this year.
chone - how about a guesstimate on Jody Gerut - Pirates
Didn't play at all in 2006 - that would be why I missed him. Decent player though, .271/.344/.433.
If he can play that's a big improvement on Burnitz.
I had a question about your projections:
How come when I add up all the runs scored on your "hitters" sheet it comes to 36,797, but when I add runs given up on your "pitchers" sheet it comes to 43,061.
Who is scoring those other 6,000 runs that you aren't accrediting to the offensive players?
I made no attempt to add them up. I am projecting essentially the MLE for a lot of guys who will not make the majors.
Like Brandon Wood, I've given him 400+ at bats, but he's unlikely to see Anaheim for more than a September callup. There's a lot of pitchers there who might have 150-180 innings because that's the workload they have handled between majors and minors, but will only be used as injury replacement, bullpen, or spend the full year in the minors.
The attempt is to predict how a player will play if given a chance, but not who will play, or where.
Run that by me again -- all players are projected in a park-neutral setting? How did you compare your results to real-life when you did your projection-system comparisons? Did you put the park effects back in?
Also, for pitchers, it looks like you're not trying to project wins and losses?
Thanks for making these things available, by the way.
Great work. These are a lot of fun to compare with Marcels and ZiPS.
Any chance of projecting W-L records for pitchers?
I could project wins and losses, but it might be awhile.
The steps I'll need to take are:
1. Put the batters on their teams, and figure out how much each player will play.
2. See how many runs each team will score.
3. Figure decisions (something like IP/8.5 for starters) and apply the pythag % to get wins and losses.
Steps 2 and 3 are easy. Step 1 is long, and has to be done by hand.
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Once upon a time, there was a mouse father.He wanted to marry his daughter to the greatest person in the world.But, who was the greatest person in the world?Oh!
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I know you are the greatest person in the world.Would you marry my daughter?""What? I'm not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the cloud.If he comes out, I’ll be covered."
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The mouse father went to talk to the cloud. “Hello! Mr. Cloud. I know you are the greatest person in the world. Would you marry my daughter?”
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“What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the wind.If he comes out, I’ll be blown away.”
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The mouse father went to talk to the wind. “Hello! Mr. Wind. I know you are the greatest person in the world.Would you marry my daughter?” “What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is the wall. If he comes out, I’ll be stopped.”
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The mouse father went to talk to the wall. “Hello! Mr. Wall. I know you are the greatest person in the world. Would you marry my daughter?” “What? I’m not the greatest person in the world. The greatest person is YOU, the mouse.” “The greatest person in the world is … mouse?” “Yes, the greatest person in the world is mouse. See? If mouse comes out, I’ll be bit!”
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The mouse father was very happy. He finally knew mouse was the greatest person in the world. He would marry his daughter to the handsome mouse next door.
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