Thursday, December 28, 2006

Prediction Results

Well before the 2006 season, I made some predictions of the final standings. If you want to check out the original posts, check my archives for around last January. How did I do? Not too bad really. Among the highlights:

-All 6 division winners were predicted to at least tie for for their division leads. I predicted the Padres to tie the Dodgers, and they actually did, but were awarded the division on technicality.

-The National league East order was predicted exactly.

-I predicted the Cardinals to be the best team in baseball, and they wound up winning the world series.

Of course that's only part of the story, I had the Cards winning 93 games, they only won 83, not playing like the team I expected until the playoffs. I missed the Tigers, having them as a .500 team. I also predicted the Pirates to be .500 and the Cubs to win 86. While I correctly listed the Mets, Phillies, and Braves in that order, I took a stand against the numbers and declared the Braves would win the division anyway. I didn't care if my system had the Mets at 91 and Braves at 88, after 15 years I expected the Braves to somehow do it anyway.

I am most proud of my predictions for these teams:

Nationals - 71 wins right on the nose.

Astros - I was off by 6 wins, but I made my prediction on the assumption Clemens would not pitch. Had he not, I probably would have nailed it. I thought the 2005 NL Champions were a team of has beens, and they were.

Twins - I felt like a moron for picking the Twins early on, when they fell behind, but they came back and did me proud.

I am least proud of this one:

Angels - When I pick them to finish out of the playoffs, I don't like being right.

Here is a prediction review from Diamond Mind

Using that method to score standings, mine came out at 45, among the top 20% or so. Diamond Mind did beat me in standard error of wins, 60-67 though. Its a better measure than using standings, but impossible to use since many people just predict finish and don't give you wins and losses. With Standings, the Cards finish 1st as predicted, so zero is added to my score. With standard error, I get docked for being 10 wins off their final record.

Its almost January, so pretty soon it will be time to start predicting the 2007 season.


At 7:54 AM, Blogger Barringer said...

Can you please help us explain your projections...


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