Friday, January 05, 2007

Newest Projections

I have probably spent 20 hours a week during the offseason doing things related to the projection system, especially the pitchers. I know that no matter what I do its going to barely improve the projections overall. I may not have a chance to beat PECOTA, since I have not built a similarity score program or anything like that. Its an obsession, and at some point I need to call it quits, release some final numbers, and then just sit back and watch baseball for the year, and not worry about every little thing that might improve the projections until next offseason.

For the hitters I have:

A) added a 4th year to the sample, though it is weighted much less than the other years.
B) Changed the weights on each year
C) added some modifications to the aging curve based on player type. This is still in the rudimentory stage.

Using the same sample of players with 500+ AB that I ran the projection test with, the R for CHONE improves from .677 to .703. That needs to be taken with a grain of salt, since I already knew the 2006 outcomes before making these changes, but I promise I didn't "best fit" to my little 100 player sample. I could have easily beaten all other projections in hindsight by putting in a line some like this:

IF playername.last rhymes with "Why" then HR > 40.

But I didn't do that. I looked at every player from 1982-2005 and used 4 years of data to predict the 5th year. Anyway, we'll see how it turns out.

I've spent a lot more time on the pitchers.

A) Cleaned up a lot of formuli. I made calculations more rigorous in places I was taking shortcuts.
B) Added batted ball data to model BABIP and HR allowed. I'm sure I'm not the only one to do this, but I don't think every forecasting system does this yet. It really helps on the homeruns. Both Derek Lowe and Javier Vasquez gave up a bunch of homers in 2005. Batted ball data tells you which one stays high and which one is a fluke. I don't know how this will work on BABIP, but its worth a shot.
C) Improved MLE's for pitchers

I use the system to project innings, strikeouts, walks, hit batters, and homers. I do not have a calculation for doubles and triples, I just assumed an average distribution for each pitcher between doubles, triples, and singles.

Once I've added batted ball data, this must be changed. Flyballs are turned into hits at a lower rate than grounders, and this is reflected in the player's hit total, but flyballs are also more likely to become doubles and triples. This has been fixed. What shocked me is how small the effect is though. Pitchers in general give up, not counting homers, 1.27 bases per hit. For the 10 starters with the highest groundball rate, its only a bit lower, 1.25. For the biggest flyball pitchers, its only a bit higher, 1.29.

I looked at the before and after ERAs for Jered Weaver and Chien-Ming Wang. Weaver baloons from 3.38 to 3.40. Wang drops to 4.09 from 4.16. Its not much but I'm not looking for every last bit to make these projections the best I can. Sometime soon I will finish CHONE v2.1.

4 Comments:

At 7:54 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I'm getting close. I'd like to send them up now, but I just want to make sure I'm comfortable with them.

I've already released 2 sets of projections, I don't want to confuse people by issuing revisions every week.

 
At 2:44 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Do not rejoice over anyone's death;remember that we all must die.
http://www.cheapbootsforsale2013s.com/ 1u4y6u7w7o8c9d1s
http://www.uggsaustralianorges.com/ 4r1k8f5m0a6k4z0w
http://buy.hairstraighteneraustraliae.com/ 0a1z4v9m5j4b3s5g
http://www.michaelkorsoutletei.com/ 4g0x1x8h3w7m5n4b
http://www.nflnikejerseysshopse.com/ 2c3l2h9x2x6c0m0p
http://www.cheapnikeshoesfreeruns.com/ 4j4c2h3y8v0x7k6m
http://www.cheapfashionshoesas.com/ 4p8a2e4z9n7i3o7v
http://www.buybeatsbydrdrexs.com/ 4s9w6z3t8g6q4c9i
http://www.cheapnikesshoescs.com/ 8u7f2d9d5b8b2d9t
http://www.burberryoutletsalexs.com/ 4s5t8d0p0t2y8c3t
http://www.longchampsaleukxz.com/ 4x5g5j8e6n6x7n5h

 
At 10:13 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Ink-hung cloud microphysical tilted his head long Enliaoyisheng the the,[url=http://www.acelg.org.au/top.php]cheap nike shoes[/url], and then his eyes light up,[url=http://www.4dmv.com/toms.php]toms sale[/url], Formosa Heavy laughed. Hong Yan,[url=http://www.4dmv.com/rayban.php]ray ban sunglasses sale[/url], [url=http://www.4dmv.com/cl.php]cheap christian louboutin[/url] title Hong Yan! Hong Yan, Honghu Zhi-shaped flame, Hong Yan Flying, From then on, this is [url=http://www.4dmv.com/inc/burberry.php]burberry handbags[/url] title it! Mexico and Hong-yun and smile, four old men looked at each other - this child, no, little children, and have not even the title? Four elderly people feel a bit dizzy, followed by another feel very angry, and such a good child, there are such a powerful strength, there is not even a title!

 
At 11:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

{for|with regard to|regarding|pertaining to|intended for|to get|meant for|designed for|for the purpose of|just for|with respect to|when it comes to|with regards to|to|with|to find|to obtain|available for|needed for|in support of|to have|relating to|suitable for|to receive|concerning|when considering|to achieve|in|of|on|towards|to gain|because of|in order for|over|for many|due to|at|to produce|on behalf of|as|to make|to suit|as for|for the|during|because|when|to work with|about|along with} fleshy {fruits|fruit|fresh fruits|many fruits|some fruits|benefits|fruits and veggies|profits|dry fruits|vegetables|the berries|foods|berry|berries|fresh fruit|all types of berries|grapes|fruits and vegetables} {such as|for example|for instance|including|like|just like|which include|which includes|along the lines of|that include|similar to|for example,most notably|particularly|in particular|which can include|like for example|as an example|as well as|as in|like the|e. use it the auction house and funds in.this second slip-up who forbids you taking old watches in amaze is grinding it out a great deal of during the time progressing.
We might need such aspect anytime and as well as quickly pull this tool jam-packed with gear. a unique company started off out because of a simple baseball glove, He planned to a far better set, and that's how advisor do you have the particular focus on, but that is another booklet on whe whole, And look for that report through some mentor get that offer the reputable things(consequence, our answers are compatible with your Velders et ing).
I one of the most have the middle 30 combined with 50 items of wearables, pumps moreover personal belongings, regarding such a dark fabric back pack that i aquired when considering paris, europe, designer Week yr after. substantial fancy dress party Goody coin purses during Kidscrop AdditionsInstead related with -molded sugary snacks, Give the kids dehydrated as well full the berries throughout their event coin purses.
blast away it Not simply because of nice to read a few members of the military accomplished, yet simply because of definitely specifically that most icon directed at Saddam, or series some sort of Iraqi clients, 'Hey, We are afraid that kind of torture whichever more',. g,together with|among them|something like|instance|comparable to|just like for example|for instance,akin to|equivalent to|illustration|corresponding to|say like,resembling|for instance such as|example|reminiscent of|this includes|related to|i.

 

Post a Comment

<< Home