Sunday, March 29, 2009

Defensive projections

I've updated the position player pages with defensive projections. These are based on 4 years of TotalZone data, including minor league defensive ratings. I have not included catchers yet. The numbers tell you how many runs above/below average player should be for every position that he played at least a game in.

Example

The infield numbers (excluding 1B) are dependent on each other - if a guy plays short and second his rating at short uses all infield data as an input. Outfielders are similarly lumped together. I use MLE's based on the work I presented here.

The numbers will disagree sometimes with previous defensive projections published on my site, the difference is input data used. Previously I used average Zone rating data.

17 Comments:

At 6:43 PM, Blogger Justin said...

Great to have minor league numbers feeding our defensive projections. Clearly there was a need for that.

Question, though: Do you still regress to Fans' Scouting Report, or are these numbers strictly Total Zone-based? I suppose having the minor league numbers mitigates, at least to some degree, the need for FSR data. But I loved how the two were integrated together.

I also liked how you previously used multiple data sources--I don't blame you for shifting over to TotalZone entirely, as it must be vastly easier to work with. But again, the previous projections were a terrific resource because they essentially pulled together all the great defensive data we have into one nice, neat package.
-j

 
At 4:28 AM, Blogger matthew said...

are you going to update the projected standings?

 
At 12:16 PM, Blogger erik said...

Great stuff, but how could Alcides Escobar go from +22 in AA to a -7 projection?

 
At 12:45 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Escobar's defensive numbers were not that great before 2008, and there is an MLE adjustment to it as well. It's quite possible that the improvement is real and this number is wrong.

Projected standings - probably not. It is a very labor intensive process, and I won't have the time to do so before the season starts. My standings, as is, will have to serve as the official on-record projections for the year.

Justin - the other defensive projections have not gone away, and I may publish them again next year and include the FSR. I can't use the fan reports though for minor leaguers. The inputs are TZ data, speed scores, MLE factors, and age.

 
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