Thursday, March 05, 2009

Most overpaid players

I started with Tim Dierke's list of 45 bad contracts, and tried to see how much value a player has for the length of the contract, compared to the money left on the deal. I started with the CHONE projection of wins above replacement and assumed that players will lose 0.5 wins per year (except for pitchers, where I go by the CHONE 6 year forecast which includes a win value each year). And 10% inflation, which may or may not actually happen.

Percentage wise, it's hard to beat Andruw Jones who still has 18 million coming his way for no value at all (at least to the Dodgers, who are paying that contract). But I'm looking for gross dollar value, so a really good player worth 100 million will show up if his contract pays him 150.

And the worst:
1. Barry Zito. He still has 5 years and 101.5 million left as he provides #5 starter value, worth 24 million over 5 year. I think that is being generous.

2. Vernon Wells. Worth 41 million over 6 years, but will be paid 117.

3. Soriano. He's worth 51 million over 6 years, but has 106 million to go.

4. Carlos Lee. Worth 20 million over 4 years (he's no better than Bobby Abreu) and will be paid 74.

5. Mike Young. Will be paid 80 million over 5, but is worth about half that.

Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. don't show up. Pierre has almost no value, and Matthews is only worth 6 total over the next 3 years, but they will only be paid 28 and 33 million each. Really bad percentage wise, but the won't make enough to get into the top 5.

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