Monday, February 23, 2009

Full list of Projections

The projection .csv files are updated through 2/23/2009. I've left the December 2008 files on Baseballprojection.com in case anyone wants to compare them.

11 Comments:

At 11:26 PM, Blogger Ryan said...

is there any way you can project total bases allowed for pitchers?

 
At 5:01 AM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Something like (hits-hr) *1.25 + hr*4 will give a reasonable estimate of total bases.

 
At 9:58 PM, Blogger Matt said...

Awesome work, thanks for the updates!

 
At 10:03 AM, Blogger patsen said...

Usually, I tie the factor in (H-HR) to the league average, and it ends up around 1.30 most of the time.

 
At 1:23 PM, Blogger Christopher Lloyd said...

Hi Chone,

Is the basic method to your projections explained anywhere? I'm curious what basic factors you consider such as years of stats, minor leagues, babip, fip, etc. Also how do you figure playing time? I noticed you still have Sheets with 140 innings. I'd love to know how you come up with your numbers, if it's some proprietary formula I understand but any info would be great. Thanks.

 
At 6:15 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

It is proprietary, but I have given overviews in different places before.

The system does not know injuries, so guys like Sheets, or Billy Wagner, or Shawn Marcum are still listed.

Playing time is based on past playing time. Minor league numbers from A+ to AAA are considered. In addition to stats, I use speed scores to adjust expected BABIP, and weight to adjust expected power.

4 years of stats are used for hitters, and 3 for pitchers. For pitchers I also consider batted ball data - GB/FB/LD/popups.

At some point I could explain in more detail, maybe add to the userguide, but to really explain it might take a book.

 
At 7:40 PM, Blogger Christopher Lloyd said...

Thanks so much for the explanation. I had scoured the internet but only seen vague mentions of what was included. It sounds like you definitely include the type of information that I would expect in a quality projection system. Although I'm quite surprised to see weight used as a measure of expected power, could make sense, just surprised to never think of that.

Thanks for the great info.

 
At 7:15 PM, Blogger Bryan said...

Hey Shone:
Great stuff! Just wondering what your thoughts are on why a player like Evan Longoria is so far down in projected stats for 2009? I've noticed with a few 2nd year players that the numbers aren't as big as most "experts" are projecting. Thoughts?
Thanks!
B

 
At 11:32 PM, Blogger Peejay Li said...

I would like to be the supporter of yours. Thank you for sharing such a nice article.
chaussures puma
puma speed cat
Nike Tn Chaussures
requin tn
nike shox
puma shoes
puma CAT
puma basket
puma speed
baskets puma
puma sport
puma femmes
puma shox r4 torch
nike air max requin
nike shox r3
shox rival r3
tn plus
chaussures shox
nike shox r4 torch
air max tn requin
nike tn femme
pas cher nike
tn chaussures
nike rift
nike shox nz
chaussures shox
nike shox rival
shox rival
chaussures requin
jeans online
cheap armani jeans
cheap G-star jeans

 
At 12:27 AM, Blogger lucyliu said...

nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
nike shoe cart
puma future
cheap puma
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air
nike rift
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes
jeans shop
diesel jeans
levis jeans

 
At 5:18 PM, Blogger LAN said...

puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
Lucyliu IS Lucyliu
nike shoe cart
puma future
cheap puma
nike rift
jeans shop
diesel jeans
levis jeans
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home