posted by Chone Smith @ 8:09 PM
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is there any way you can project total bases allowed for pitchers?
Something like (hits-hr) *1.25 + hr*4 will give a reasonable estimate of total bases.
Awesome work, thanks for the updates!
Usually, I tie the factor in (H-HR) to the league average, and it ends up around 1.30 most of the time.
Hi Chone,Is the basic method to your projections explained anywhere? I'm curious what basic factors you consider such as years of stats, minor leagues, babip, fip, etc. Also how do you figure playing time? I noticed you still have Sheets with 140 innings. I'd love to know how you come up with your numbers, if it's some proprietary formula I understand but any info would be great. Thanks.
It is proprietary, but I have given overviews in different places before.The system does not know injuries, so guys like Sheets, or Billy Wagner, or Shawn Marcum are still listed.Playing time is based on past playing time. Minor league numbers from A+ to AAA are considered. In addition to stats, I use speed scores to adjust expected BABIP, and weight to adjust expected power.4 years of stats are used for hitters, and 3 for pitchers. For pitchers I also consider batted ball data - GB/FB/LD/popups.At some point I could explain in more detail, maybe add to the userguide, but to really explain it might take a book.
Thanks so much for the explanation. I had scoured the internet but only seen vague mentions of what was included. It sounds like you definitely include the type of information that I would expect in a quality projection system. Although I'm quite surprised to see weight used as a measure of expected power, could make sense, just surprised to never think of that.Thanks for the great info.
Hey Shone:Great stuff! Just wondering what your thoughts are on why a player like Evan Longoria is so far down in projected stats for 2009? I've noticed with a few 2nd year players that the numbers aren't as big as most "experts" are projecting. Thoughts?Thanks!B
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