Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Update on WAR values

I reloaded the player pages today, in some cases the TotalZone changed because I realized I had not used the most current database and park factors. On fairly large change is Manny Ramirez for 2005-2007, my previous numbers had him only a bit below average, now he is in the -10 to -20 range those years (though better last year for both of his teams). This puts his defensive ratings in the same range as his Fangraphs UZR ratings, though nowhere near as bad as his STATS UZR values.

Another correction I made was to have the offensive runs adjusted by a league specific runs to win converter, but the defensive ratings (and position adjustments) to use a standard 10 runs = 1 win. The reason is that the TotalZone ratings use a standard plays to runs value over the last half century. A play saved by Luis Aparicio in the 60's counts as .75 runs, just like one saved by Omar Vizquel in the 90's.

This is a conscious decision to better allow comparisons of fielders, in runs saved, across time. Now since little Louie played in a lower run environment, an extra play could be counted at a lower value than one in the high offense 1990's. But then, the win value of that run would be greater. Maybe Brooks Robinson didn't save 268 runs, he only saved 230 because runners would have been less likely to score. But his defense was worth about 27 wins.

Maybe the two exactly cancel out, maybe not, but I figured it was close enough, and the simplicity and ease of comparison led me to stick with this decision.

The player win totals will change a bit here and there - I apologize to anyone who has spent a bunch of time trying to compile a greatest of alltime list, but soon I will add a leaderboard page. No reason not to make it very extensive, such as top 300 or so.

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