Saturday, March 04, 2006

Bible Studies

I've been reading John Dewan's The Fielding Bible, and if you're reading this site, you should too. There are some great features here, and some answer questions that have been asked in many a fielding article at Baseball Think Factory.

I'll start with zone rating, my favorite defensive measure, not because I'm convinced its the best but because its freely available at any point in the season. Zone rating is simply the percent of chances a player converts in the zones where at least 50% of balls in play are typically fielded. If a player fields a ball outside his zone, its added to the numerator and denomonator, but if he doesn't make a play it doesn't factor into zone rating at all. This can be a problem. Consider this example: Player A fields a ball in his zone, then watches a ball outside his zone go through to the outfield. Player B makes a great play just outside his zone, but the next ball, hit right at him, he boots. Player A has a zone rating of 1.000, or 1/1. Player B, having converted one out on the exact same opportunities, has a .500 zone rating, 1/2.

Zone rating could be more informative if balls outside your zone are considered separately, and that's what The Fielding Bible does in Revised Zone Ratings. While these are fun to look at, and exactly what I hoped zone rating would do, it doesn't quite match up to the zone ratings published by STATS. I took the Fielding Bible zone ratings, recalculated them by adding plays outside of zone back in, and compared them to STATS. While most players are within a few percentage points, there are some real outliers. Russ Adams comes in dead last by STATS at .779 but is .834 in Revised. Derek Jeter on the other hand drops from .831 to .803, Khalil Greene drops from .859 to .821. Its the same methodology, looking at the same players in the same season. They should match up better than that, and until they do people will continue to distrust defensive statistics.

Why don't they match up? There are two possible reasons:

1) Scoring - STATS and Baseball Info Solutions (the data behind the Fielding Bible) are looking at the same play and scoring them differently.

2) The zones. This is more likely the culprit. According to this grid used for STATS, there are 8 x 22 or 176 places where a ball can land. In The Fielding Bible (pg 9) there are about 260, though there is no map showing exactly how they are structured. I would lean towards trusting the system with the more detailed data, but I really have no idea which is closer to the truth.

The zone rating part is just a small part of the book. The rating used more often is the plus/minus rating, which is pretty much the same thing used by Mitchell Lichtman (MGL) in UZR. The difference is in the details, and I don't know all the detail used in UZR, though MGL upgrades it from time to time so an old article explaining the process may be obsolete.

For plus/minus, if there is a .26 chance that a ball hit in a given area is fielded, the player is charged .26 plays if its not fielded, and credited .74 if it is. If another player fields the ball, there is no penalty for the first player (a good thing IMO). Consideration is given for type of ball hit (liner, fly, grounder, bunt) and speed (hard, medium, slow) as well as positioning (1B having to hold bag with runner on first, hit & run for middle infielders).

Some of the results are very surprising, far off from what UZR numbers have been published, such as Steve Finley rated the #1 centerfielder for the 2004 season. After he was signed by the Angels, MGL posted Finley's UZR numbers, and they were horrible. I watched that horror unfold in the LAnaheim outfield last summer, so I know which data set I'm picking if forced to choose. At least both systems agreed he was pretty bad in 2005, and most of the numbers pass the smell test.

Robinson Cano was at -27 (in plays, not runs). I thought he was closer to average in UZR, though I can't remember. He's equally bad at going left or right, and average on balls hit right at him. After seeing he's gained 20 pounds since last year, all I can say is good luck with that, Yankees. Manny Ramirez was only -14, which is pretty easy to live with given his bat, unlike the -30 to -50 ratings from a few other systems.

While I have no idea if plus/minus is an improvement or even the equal to UZR, I can appreciate the level of detail. You don't just get one number, you get home/road splits, splits for lefty and righty pitchers, and going left/right/dead on for infielders. There's a lot of good info here if you can make sense of it, and I haven't even begun to grok it yet.

Finally, there's the "where hits landed" charts. While you would need to add context to make any analysis of this (like how many balls were hit to each location) they provide a simple check. Jeter and Cano have horrible ratings? Well, the Yankees gave up a ton of hits up the middle, in the 3b/ss hole, and the 1b/2b hole. the only part of the infield that wasn't a hole was the 1B line, thanks to Tino, the God of Clutchness. For the Red Sox, they gave up a lot of hits in the LF gap and down the LF line, supporting evidence for ranking Ramirez as a Manny-type defender.

They also gave up 42 hits off the wall, where the average team only gave up 10, and the reasons for this are as obvious as a 40 foot tall monster breathing down your neck. My guess, though I can't be certain, is that most defensive systems were counting hits off the wall against Manny, and they obviously shouldn't be. He's bad enough as it is.

The plus/minus system is in terms of plays made, and the enhanced version in terms of bases. There is no calculation of runs saved, though pg 12 mentions that this will be done in the future, and that the value of a single is "a little less than half a run" STOP RIGHT THERE! ALERT THE SABERMETRIC POLICE! I hope in the next year they read this, or somebody tells them that preventing a single also creates an out, and the single and out together are worth more like .773 runs, according to The Book, which I also have just started to read.

That's it for now, I've got to get back to reading the Bible.

11 Comments:

At 10:53 AM, Blogger Joe said...

A friend ordered me a copy and I'm anxiously awaiting it's arrival. This review will hold me over until it shows up. Great stuff, Chone.

 
At 11:16 AM, Blogger Tangotiger said...

I post this all the time, so it seems appropriate here:

=================================
Suppose a team with Ozzie at SS gives up on average 12 non-HR hits, and 2.6 walks every game (which of course is 27 outs). Applying .50 runs per non-HR hit (I know it should be closer to .55, but I just want to keep it basic), and .30 runs per BB, and -.10 runs per out, and we get 4.08 runs scored per game. And per game, we see that Ozzie's team faces 41.6 batters (again, let's not worry about DPs, etc).

Now, let's say Ozzie was traded for Spike, and let's say for every 41.6 batters faced, there is one ball that Ozzie gets to that Spike doesn't. So, for those 41.6 batters, Spike's team records 13 non-HR hits (1 more than Oz), 2.6 walks, and 26 outs (1 less than Oz). However, there's still one more out to go! Since Spike's team gives up 13 non-HR hits / 26 outs, we can estimate that this team will give up 13.5 non-HR hits, 2.7 walks, and 27 outs per game ( a total of 43.2 batters, a remarkable 1.6 MORE batters than Oz). Anyway, applying our LW constants, and we see that Spike's team gives up 4.86 runs per game.

This number is .78 runs MORE than Ozzie. This is the result of Ozzie getting to one more hit than Spike. .50 runs for the hit, and about .30 runs for the out gives you the .80 runs.
===============================

 
At 11:16 AM, Blogger Tangotiger said...

I post this all the time, so it seems appropriate here:

=================================
Suppose a team with Ozzie at SS gives up on average 12 non-HR hits, and 2.6 walks every game (which of course is 27 outs). Applying .50 runs per non-HR hit (I know it should be closer to .55, but I just want to keep it basic), and .30 runs per BB, and -.10 runs per out, and we get 4.08 runs scored per game. And per game, we see that Ozzie's team faces 41.6 batters (again, let's not worry about DPs, etc).

Now, let's say Ozzie was traded for Spike, and let's say for every 41.6 batters faced, there is one ball that Ozzie gets to that Spike doesn't. So, for those 41.6 batters, Spike's team records 13 non-HR hits (1 more than Oz), 2.6 walks, and 26 outs (1 less than Oz). However, there's still one more out to go! Since Spike's team gives up 13 non-HR hits / 26 outs, we can estimate that this team will give up 13.5 non-HR hits, 2.7 walks, and 27 outs per game ( a total of 43.2 batters, a remarkable 1.6 MORE batters than Oz). Anyway, applying our LW constants, and we see that Spike's team gives up 4.86 runs per game.

This number is .78 runs MORE than Ozzie. This is the result of Ozzie getting to one more hit than Spike. .50 runs for the hit, and about .30 runs for the out gives you the .80 runs.
===============================

 
At 11:41 PM, Anonymous baseball betting pete rose said...

Best prices, early-bird specials, top betting sites, free picks and much more information about baseball betting tip can be found daily right here! Always look for blogs like this one, this post, a truly professional place to post revelant information. We wish to thank Chone Smith personally and we wish you all the success. Look for future information about baseball betting tip, bonus offers, promotions, contests, and more in the upcoming season!

 
At 7:28 PM, Blogger as said...

I like your blog. Thank you. They are really great . Ermunterung ++ .
Some new style Puma Speed is in fashion this year.
chaussure puma is Puma shoes in french . Many Franzose like seach “chaussure sport” by the internet when they need buy the Puma Shoes Or nike max shoes. The information age is really convenient .




By the way ,the nike max ltd is really good NIKE air shoes ,don’t forget buy the puma mens shoes and nike air max ltd by the internet when you need them . Do you know Nike Air Shoes is a best Air Shoes . another kinds of Nike shoes is better . For example , Nike Air Rift is good and Cheap Nike Shoes .the nike shox shoes is fitting to running.



Spring is coming, Do you think this season is not for Ugg Boots? maybe yes .but this season is best time that can buy the cheap ugg boots. Many sellers are selling discounted. Do not miss . Please view my fc2 blog and hair straighteners blog.
.thank you .


I like orange converse shoes ,I like to buy the cheap converse shoes by the internet shop . the puma shoes and the adidas shoes (or addidas shoes) are more on internet shop .i can buy the cheap nike shoes and cheap puma shoes online. It’s really convenient.
Many persons more like Puma basket shoes than nike air rift shoes . the Puma Cat shoes is a kind of Cheap Puma Shoes .
If you want to buy the Cheap Nike Air shoes ,you can buy them online. They are same as the Nike Air shoes authorized shop. Very high-caliber Air shoes and puma cat shoes . the cheap puma shoes as same as other.




polo shirts

ralph lauren polo shirts
chaussure puma

chaussure sport



chaussures puma

puma CAT

ed hardy clothing

ed hardy clothes



ed hardy womens

ed hardy sunglasses

 
At 12:50 AM, Blogger lucyliu said...

nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
nike shoe cart
puma future
cheap puma
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air
nike rift
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes
jeans shop
diesel jeans
levis jeans

 
At 6:13 PM, Blogger LAN said...

puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
Lucyliu IS Lucyliu
nike shoe cart
puma future
cheap puma
nike rift
jeans shop
diesel jeans
levis jeans
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes

 
At 10:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

blu ray ripper
blu ray ripper
blu ray to avi
blu ray to wmv
blu ray to mp4
Furthermore, Blu ray Ripper has powerful editing functions like Trim and Crop Blu ray clips, add text/image Watermark as a logo, set video Effect like brightness, contrast, saturation, etc.

 
At 10:52 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

blu ray ripper
blu ray ripper
blu ray to avi
blu ray to wmv
blu ray to mp4
Furthermore, Blu ray Ripper has powerful editing functions like Trim and Crop Blu ray clips, add text/image Watermark as a logo, set video Effect like brightness, contrast, saturation, etc.

 
At 6:16 AM, Blogger polo shirts said...

History of polo ralph lauren. Polo fashions had its humble beginnings in 1968 when tie salesman Ralph Lauren gave it a kick start. By 1969 he had a boutique polo ralph lauren factory stores within the Manhattan department store Bloomingdale's. ... Brands and luxury standard. Since Ralph Lauren's first brand, Polo Ralph Lauren, was launched, the company has expanded to include a variety of luxury brands such as Polo Golf, Polo Denim, Polo Sport. You can buy cheap Ralph Lauren Clothing at Ralph Lauren outlet.Also We provide polo shirts
Ralph Lauren polo shirt, 50% OFF! polo ralph lauren outlet online is your best choice!In 2006, polo ralph lauren outlet became the first designer in Wimbledon's 133-year history to create official uniforms for the tournament. As part of this year's event, which starts next week, polo ralph lauren sale will introduces the first ... determination to maintain and enhance the values for which our two brands are famous throughout the world. The rugby ralph lauren brand brings to Wimbledon the look of timeless elegance, drawing on our rich history and traditions

 
At 10:04 PM, Blogger aiya said...

Office 2010
Microsoft Office 2010
Microsoft word
Office 2007
Microsoft Office
Microsoft Office 2007
Office 2007 key
Office 2007 download
Office 2007 Professional
Outlook 2010
Microsoft outlook
Microsoft outlook 2010
Windows 7

 

Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home