AL
East
Yankees 88-74
Red Sox 84-78
Blue Jays 83-79
D-Rays 75-87
Orioles 75-87
Central
Twins 87-75
Indians 86-76
Wt Sox 83-79
Tigers 81-81
Royald 67-95
West
A's 90-72
Angels 84-78
Mariners 77-85
Rangers 77-85
No comments this time, I spent 1.5 hours on AL East comments but found out that blogger's "check spelling" button actually means "Destroy my work and make sure no trace is left in all of cyberspace".
posted by Chone Smith @ 3:51 PM
5 comments
5 Comments:
Wow, Sean, your projections are all within two or three games of ZIPS+PT except for the Rangers. I'd be quite interested to know what numbers you used for some of their players; I have the sneaking suspicion that ZIPS rates several of their position players too highly, but there's nothing that doesn't correspond to what they've done in the past couple of seasons.
I have the Rangers scoring the most runs in the league, so the problem is pitching.
Millwood is good, he projects better than Kenny Rogers, but no as good as Rogers was last season. Eaton is a downgrade from Chris Young. The rest is crap.
So the bullpen projects as crap, too? That's really where ZIPS had me; it's got the Ranger bullpen as being really quite good, and the pitchers' historical performance doesn't glaringly argue. Anyway, it makes me feel better to see...
Millwood better than Rogers, really? I'm also afraid that Padilla might be just decent enough that the Rangers could win despite an ugly pitching staff, but that's just the same twisted obsession that made me root against the Angels in '04 as you may remember. Nothing personal, for any Ranger fans who may be listening...
I think Loe, Dominguez, Benoit, Padilla, Francisco (if healthy), Feldman (if used in the majors), Shouse (if used properly - a big reason he wasn't last year is because of all the injuries), and Cordero is a fine back end of the rotation and good enough bullpen.
I don't expect to be able to match the performances of Rogers and Young, but their pythag and third-order winning percentage were good last year, despite having a ton of injuries in the pen and back end of the rotation - offensively I think they should definitely get better and their bullpen should get a lot better. I don't think the 2005 Rogers to 2006 Millwood downgrade (and I do think this is a downgrade) and the 2005 Young to 2006 Eaton downgrade are enough to cancel that out. Also, I'm hoping we'll see a lot more of Loe and Dominguez - they're not great but they're solid.
I see them as an 84 or 85 win team - good enough to make the playoffs, but not that likely to do so.
-Spivey
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