Wednesday, January 04, 2006

Casey at bat and other stuff

New projection for Casey Kotchman. I've made some changes to the projection system, including a weight factor. Casey's a big guy, so he should hit more homers. The regression part of the system regresses Casey's HR to a higher than league average level, Figgins to a lower one, and someone like Robb Quinlan to the average. Before, all players were regressed to league average.

Its not a huge deal, but it makes Casey's projection a little better. .269, 16 HR, .339 OBA, .424 SLG. Now hopefully he'll do that while playing 1B, instead of platooning as a DH, and Erstad will be in center field or the bench.

Wonder if the Red Sox would take Erstad, Cabrera, and Juan Rivera for ManRam?

Probably not, but it would fill 3 holes where the Red Sox need players most, and the Angels wouldn't miss any of the above. No prospects involved, Red Sox don't deserve prospects from such a deal unless they pay a huge chunk of ManRam's salary.

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