Tuesday, November 15, 2005

Seeing into the future

I've got a projection system I've been working on for awhile. I have no idea how accurate it is compared to others out there. Dan Szymborski of Baseball Think Factory has his ZIPS projections out now, for about half the teams. Its pretty early, he usually has put this out closer to the spring. I"ll post mine somewhere and link to them before the season starts, but I'm not ready yet for a few reasons.

1) I'm lazy and haven't done so much since the season ended

2) There are a lot of errors in my data. I get major league stats from one place, minor league from another, and past year stats don't always match up. The biggest problem is making sure you've got the right player. It wrecks havoc on the excel lookups needed to process so many players when I might have to match Bobby Abreau to Bob Abreau (and keep him straight from Bob Abuee of my APBA league. Howard Stern fans, say that one out loud.) Plus all the guys who share names. I always change Alex Gonzalez to Sea Bass Gonzalez to keep him straight from BDPASB Gonzalez (Botched-double-play-after-Steve-Bartman). Give me a winter and I hope I can make sense of all that, because I project the minor leaguers too.

3) How the hell do I know how he's gonna hit or pitch if I don't even know where he's playing?

I'll put some previews out here though, because despite being a lazy bum who's done nothing to publicize this site yet, I have readers. Thanks to LA Blackhawk of Waterloo, Shredder, and Matt Welch who have already found me and posted a link on their blogs. Thanks to any others doing the same things, in case I haven't found you yet.

Brian Giles:

Park Neutral:
 BA  HR Run RBI AB  H  K  BB 2B 3B  OBP SA

.277 21 96 90 557 154 75 101 33 4 .392 .460

San Diego: .265/.383/.430
Yankees: .274/.390/.453
Angels: .277/.392/.454
Boston: .285/.399/.468
Colorado .299/.410/.510 (just for kicks)

Brandon Wood: .261/.310/.479 - won't play in bigs other than possible september call up. Probably a bit too optimistic, at least for now.

Jeff Mathis: .242/.302/.396 - looks about right. Biggest question is who gets more time, him or Jose Molina.

Howie Kendrick .279/.310/.424 - If his glove is good (don't know either way) he's about an equal for Home Run Kennedy right now. Most likely takes over in 2006 after getting 200 hits in the PCL.

Kendry Morales .258/.298/.420 Needs to improve, and there's no reason he shouldn't. I've already made a wild-assed guess that by 2008 he'll be a better hitter than Manny Ramirez. We'll see.

5 Comments:

At 11:38 PM, Blogger The Chronicler said...

Dude -- pre tags are your friend.

That projection for Wood looks pretty high -- can he really hit .261 right now with all the K's? I do think that's his range, eventually.

The other projections look dead-on (as if I have any idea ...)

- Chronicles (BHW)

 
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