Tuesday, January 10, 2006

National League West

First things first, Bruce Sutter made the hall. Why anyone would vote him over Gossage I don't know, but there are plenty of articles out asking that question, so I won't bother.

Dodgers 80-82
Padres 80-82
Giants 79-83
D-Backs 78-84
Rockies 71-91

What an ugly division. Due to the unbalanced schedule, one of these teams will crack .500 like the Padres last year, though I have no idea which one. Dodgers probably have the most upside. I have Drew and Nomar both around 360 at bats. One of them will get lucky and stay healthy. Its an old team, with Mueller, Kent, and Lofton all 35+. Only Furcal and the young catchers are south of 30. The defense is mediocre, as is the starting rotation of Lowe, Penny, Perez, Seo, and Tomko.

Padres have a good 1-2 punch with Peavy (3.09 ERA) and Chris "Cy" Young (3.59), who will love his new ballpark. Lawrence, Williams, and estes round out the rotation, none are very good. The bullpen is very good with Hoffman back, Linebrink a setup man once again (damn those Padres, I picked up Linebrink for $1 the last week of 2005 in a fantasy keeper league). Steve Andrade finally gets his shot, and averages a strikeout per inning. The Angel's bullpen welfare program continues around the majors. The defense is a bit above average, led by Mike Cameron, and the Padres allow fewer runs than all but the Cardinals.

Their offense is very weak, however. Like last year, nobody cracks 20 homers. Castilla and Mirabelli are black holes. Bellhorn/Barfield at 2B don't hit much, Klesko is done, Cameron hits .239 with 14 HR, Dave Roberts declines a bit from 2005. Only Giles and Greene are even average offensive players, until Adrian Gonzalez wins the 1B job from Klesko midway through the year.

I understand the Padres are moving the fences in a bit. I haven't accounted for that, I'm using the old park factors. If there's a difference, they score a few more runs. Somebody hits 20 homers. They also give up a few more. Record stays the same. Ballparks don't win games, players do.

Jason Schmidt is back. He follows up an injury plagued year with a 3.42 ERA. Lowry and Morris are solid, and Matt Cain shows flashes of brilliance, though 85 walks in 159 innings keep his ERA at 4.24. The pitching is solid.

The offense isn't good enough. The average age of the starting lineup is 36. Durham, Alou, and Vizquel are shells of their former selves. Matheny was never that good in the first place. Feliz at 3B swings at everything, and Mark Sweeney, getting the majority of 1B time, is overexposed. Only Randy Winn among the mortals plays well, hitting .290 with 38 doubles and 14 homers plus good CF defense.

For the immortals, Barry Bonds is projected at 336 at bats. He hits .290 with 21 homers.

When some of the older players need a day off, the Giants can always play Steve Finley. That'll be fun.

Diamond backs have one reliable, durable starter in Brandon Webb. There's Miguel Batista, who's 35, was not a good starter in 2004, and attempts to return after a year in the pen. There's El Duque, who began his Cuban career pitching under a different Batista. I'll be surprised if he can make 20 starts. Brad Halsey and Dustin Nippert round out the rotation. Nippert has potential but is still an inknown. My conservative projection is a 4.61 ERA.

Overall, the D-Backs allow 781 runs, 70 fewer than in 2005 but still 3rd worst in the league.

The offense is medicore considering the park. Conor Jackson hits .275 with 20 homers. Chad Tracy drops to 17, I'm not sure his power boost of 2005 is for real. Green and Gonzalez are another year older. Eric Byrnes hits .264 with 15 homers and often dives the wrong way for baseballs. If they contend its only because nobody in the division is any good. Most likely they fall out of the race, and in the second half of the year their fans will be treated to the future, as Carlos Quentin, Steven Drew, and Chris Young are worked into the lineup. (Though none of those players are worked into my projections yet.)

The Rockies do about the same as they did last year. They score a lot of runs, though only Helton is an outstanding hitter. (Atkins, Holliday, and Hawpe are decent) They haven't added anyone good in the offseason. The young players are mostly second rate prospects with limited celings. The real good ones, like Tulowitzki and Stewart, are at least a year away.

Outfield defense is a problem. Holliday and the Hawpe/Shealy platoon are butchers in the corners. They don't have a legit CF. Cory Sullivan is probably the starter.

Forcing a pitcher to throw in this environment should be considered cruel and unusual punishment. They only have one, maybe 2 good pitchers to start with. Jeff Francis is one of the best young pitchers in baseball, and its to his credit that he keeps his ERA under 5 (4.92) in this environment. He also gives them a 152-61 K-W ratio. Jason Jennings is second with a 5.61 ERA, though he could give somebody a Chacon like performance if he's traded. Brian Fuentes is a pretty good closer, but if anything happens to him they'll likely go to Jose Mesa as a closer, for the comic relief.

Overall, the Rockies give up 923 runs and finish in last place.


At 2:03 AM, Anonymous Vaux said...


I'm relieved to see that you have the Rockies giving up over 900 runs. I've only got them to give up about 850, which left them over .500 (!)

The difference between your Dodger prediction and mine is definitely that I've just gone ahead and projected health for Drew and all the pitchers. The Padres no longer have Brian Lawrence, alas, and the Diamonback will have Russ Ortiz in their rotation rather than Nippert. Bob Melvin is even making noises about a "competition" for the "fifth" spot between Halsey and Vargas, so their projection could be a few game uglier.

Good stuff!

At 8:03 PM, Anonymous Chone said...

I forgot about Lawrence. I need to add him to the Nats. The Padres have depth (Hensley, Stauffer, Setherton) who I think are decent, so that should not change their projection.


At 9:21 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

fantasy baseball leagueAny one using the phrase "easy as taking candy from a baby, has never tried taking candy from a baby before.fantasy baseball league

At 5:57 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

puma mens shoes
puma shoes
puma speed
nike shoes
nike air
nike air shoes
nike air max 90
nike air max 95
nike air max tn
nike air rift
nike shox r4
nike air max 360
nike shox nz
puma cat
air max trainers
mens nike air max
sports shoes
nike air rifts
nike air rift trainer
nike air
nike shoes air max
nike shoes shox
air shoes
Lucyliu IS Lucyliu
nike shoe cart
puma future
cheap puma
nike rift
jeans shop
diesel jeans
levis jeans
nike rift shoes
cheap nike air rifts
bape shoes

At 9:53 PM, Blogger aiya said...

Office 2010
Microsoft Office 2010
Microsoft word
Office 2007
Microsoft Office
Microsoft Office 2007
Office 2007 key
Office 2007 download
Office 2007 Professional
Outlook 2010
Microsoft outlook
Microsoft outlook 2010
Windows 7

At 11:10 PM, Blogger oakleyses said...

louis vuitton outlet, longchamp pas cher, longchamp outlet, longchamp outlet, ray ban sunglasses, gucci handbags, louis vuitton, oakley sunglasses, christian louboutin shoes, nike free, replica watches, prada outlet, prada handbags, nike air max, polo ralph lauren, ugg boots, christian louboutin, louboutin pas cher, ugg boots, tiffany and co, ray ban sunglasses, christian louboutin outlet, louis vuitton outlet, louis vuitton, cheap oakley sunglasses, louis vuitton outlet, air max, jordan shoes, sac longchamp pas cher, michael kors pas cher, nike roshe, polo outlet, longchamp outlet, tory burch outlet, christian louboutin uk, chanel handbags, burberry pas cher, replica watches, oakley sunglasses wholesale, oakley sunglasses, kate spade outlet, nike air max, tiffany jewelry, polo ralph lauren outlet online, jordan pas cher, nike free run, uggs on sale, nike outlet, ray ban sunglasses

At 11:13 PM, Blogger oakleyses said...

lululemon canada, uggs outlet, polo lacoste, nike air max uk, coach outlet store online, converse pas cher, new balance, hogan outlet, michael kors, hollister pas cher, burberry handbags, nike blazer pas cher, mulberry uk, vans pas cher, abercrombie and fitch uk, michael kors outlet, nike air force, true religion outlet, north face, true religion outlet, true religion outlet, nike roshe run uk, nike air max, michael kors outlet online, nike tn, michael kors outlet, uggs outlet, guess pas cher, replica handbags, coach purses, ralph lauren uk, michael kors outlet online, michael kors outlet, michael kors outlet online, ray ban pas cher, coach outlet, nike air max uk, oakley pas cher, true religion jeans, sac vanessa bruno, kate spade, ray ban uk, nike free uk, michael kors, timberland pas cher, hollister uk, michael kors outlet online, burberry outlet, north face uk

At 11:18 PM, Blogger oakleyses said...

converse outlet, p90x workout, hollister, converse, new balance shoes, ralph lauren, nike roshe run, vans outlet, abercrombie and fitch, mac cosmetics, insanity workout, lancel, herve leger, instyler, reebok outlet, chi flat iron, soccer shoes, soccer jerseys, ferragamo shoes, nfl jerseys, timberland boots, north face outlet, asics running shoes, vans, valentino shoes, beats by dre, iphone cases, nike air max, baseball bats, nike air max, nike huaraches, bottega veneta, hollister clothing, hermes belt, gucci, nike trainers uk, north face outlet, babyliss, jimmy choo outlet, lululemon, longchamp uk, ghd hair, oakley, mcm handbags, wedding dresses, hollister, mont blanc pens, ray ban, celine handbags, louboutin

At 11:23 PM, Blogger oakleyses said...

supra shoes, moncler, karen millen uk, moncler, ugg uk, louis vuitton, ugg,uggs,uggs canada, louis vuitton, hollister, moncler, canada goose jackets, canada goose outlet, thomas sabo, montre pas cher, coach outlet, replica watches, moncler outlet, ugg pas cher, ugg,ugg australia,ugg italia, marc jacobs, swarovski crystal, ugg, canada goose, pandora jewelry, doudoune moncler, wedding dresses, swarovski, louis vuitton, toms shoes, moncler outlet, pandora charms, moncler, louis vuitton, pandora uk, canada goose uk, canada goose, links of london, pandora jewelry, louis vuitton, moncler uk, canada goose outlet, canada goose outlet, canada goose, juicy couture outlet, juicy couture outlet


Post a Comment

Links to this post:

Create a Link

<< Home