Wednesday, February 08, 2006

Runs scored

I just got a double present in the mail, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and Derik McCamey's Minor League Baseball Analyst. Very fun stuff. I don't buy it for MLE's or projections, I do all that stuff myself. I buy it for the comments and articles. I've already taken one insight and incorporated it into my hitter projections.

One cool thing is a formula for predicting RBI, based on team unners on base, the player's stats, and lineup position. Alas, no such formula for runs scored. So I came up with my own:

Runs = HR + SB/5 + (times on base- HR) * Tm Slg * 0.73 * lineup spot

Where lineup spot =
1 1.20
2 1.15
3 1.05
4 1.00
5 0.95
6 0.95
7 0.95
8 0.85
9 0.9

So far, it looks pretty reasonable. It could be a useful tool if all your projections assume Brad Wilkerson will hit towards the end of the lineup for the Rangers, and on March 31 they announce he'll be the leadoff hitter.


At 2:02 PM, Anonymous joel said...

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At 1:47 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Thanks, Joel, for that hilariously off-topic and ill-informed ("a format similar to XML") post.

At 9:36 PM, Blogger Matchosan said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At 9:38 PM, Blogger Matchosan said...

"I buy it for the comments and articles." yes , and I buy PLAYBOY for the articles and editorial.

But all and all a very good site. Can't wait for the season to begin.

Also you may need to change your blogs name. Arte won. WooHoo

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