Runs scored
I just got a double present in the mail, Ron Shandler's Baseball Forecaster and Derik McCamey's Minor League Baseball Analyst. Very fun stuff. I don't buy it for MLE's or projections, I do all that stuff myself. I buy it for the comments and articles. I've already taken one insight and incorporated it into my hitter projections.
One cool thing is a formula for predicting RBI, based on team unners on base, the player's stats, and lineup position. Alas, no such formula for runs scored. So I came up with my own:
Runs = HR + SB/5 + (times on base- HR) * Tm Slg * 0.73 * lineup spot
Where lineup spot =
1 1.20
2 1.15
3 1.05
4 1.00
5 0.95
6 0.95
7 0.95
8 0.85
9 0.9
So far, it looks pretty reasonable. It could be a useful tool if all your projections assume Brad Wilkerson will hit towards the end of the lineup for the Rangers, and on March 31 they announce he'll be the leadoff hitter.
posted by Chone Smith @ 6:13 PM
10 comments
10 Comments:
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