Thursday, June 04, 2009

Randy Johnson 300 Wins

I wanted to see this game, going down to Nationals stadium last night only to have the whole thing rained out. I didn't try again today but at least got home in time to watch most of the game. Johnson pitched great for 6 innings, making a great defensive play nad watching Brian Wilson get a very close call in the 8th with the bases loaded, a 3-2 count, and a one run lead.

I believe some active pitcher is going to win 300, but damned if I know who, and it's likely at least a decade away unless Jamie Moyer can keep making 30 starts a year to age 51.

There are now 4 pitchers to win 300 while pitching in the era of the 5 man rotation, Maddux, Clemens, Glavine, and Johnson. A few pitchers are ahead of Johnson's pace, but he got a late start (first win at age 25) and nobody can be expected to match his late peak.

Looking at the average wins by age of those 4 pitchers I get:

Age Wins
28 106
29 124
30 137
31 152
32 165
33 181
34 201
35 219

CC Sabathia, 28, is ahead of Glavine, behind Maddux and Clemens, and ahead of the average.

At age 30, Buerhle is 9 behing the average, and Santana is 21 back.

Roy Oswalt, 31, is 21 back, and Roy Halladay is 25 back of the 32 year old average.

Tim Hudson, 33, is 35 back of the average, and hasn't pitched yet this season.

Take any one individually, and the odds are stacked against him, but I think one of these guys will come through.

93 Comments:

At 3:43 PM, Blogger CSG said...

I've been thinking about this, and I think the best candidate is someone who I haven't seen brought up in potential 300 win speculation: Felix Hernandez. 23 years old, already with 46 wins, a good chance at reaching 55 or so wins by the end of this season, and it seems like he's coming into his own. His candidacy involves the most speculation, but reaching the starting rotation at the age of 19 is a good head start.

 
At 9:19 AM, Blogger TWOandFRO said...

I don't understand why 5 man rotations has been the main talking point against another 300 game winner. As you point out the last 4 300 game winners have been from 5 man rotations and the era of specialized relievers.

Pitching for 20+ years is what is going to keep someone from getting to 300 wins not the 5 man rotation.

Your work is great.

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