Wednesday, January 21, 2009

Player of the Day: Jonny Gomes

Look out Jay Bruce, you are no longer the best hitting outfielder on the Reds. Jonny is. He's signed to a minor league contract for only $600,000.

The negatives on Jonny are that he only hit .182 last year, strikes out a ton, and plays brutal defense. Still, the guy has serious power. He's got 1264 big league at bats, and 66 homers to go with a .455 slugging percentage and 105 OPS+. His minor league track record says the same thing, the dude has power.

In his favor, he's moving from baseball's toughest division to the National League central, a very good homerun hitting park, and some other good hitter's parks among his divisional opponents (Wrigley, Houston). I think Jonny is going to win a starting job in spring training (Reds OF then being him, Tavares in center, and Bruce in right), and hit a bunch of homers. If he plays every day I think he'll hit 30. He'll also strike out 150+ times, and play crappy defense. They've pretty much replaced 90% of Adam Dunn for a little over the league minimum. Jonny is a good player to watch for if you wonder if there will be a Ryan Ludwick of 2009.

81 Comments:

At 12:11 PM, Anonymous Aaron B. said...

I hope that last year was just an aberration and Gomes has a good year in Cincy (we're from the same area, so I root for the guy).

Off topic Rally, but I was wondering how TotalZone rated Kent at second base, both for his career and for just the years we don't have UZR. Thanks for your help.

 
At 11:06 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

I've got Kent as essentially an average fielder, -5 runs for his career. He's also +9 turning the DP.

+6 baserunning, -18 hitting in to DP's, +298 with the bat.

His total wins above replacement is 59.5

 
At 11:32 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Not much of a chance he starts for the Reds. They have Dickerson, Hopper & possibly Hairston (if Gonzalez is healthy to play ss)already in the mix. He will do well to make the club out of spring training.

 
At 1:23 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

90% of Dunn = Johnny Gomes, so Gomes is good for 36 HR, 90 RBI, and an OPS+ in the 117 range.

Last time I visit this blog.

 
At 1:44 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Geez, I used to have respect for stuff you wrote.

I can only guess you are posting this so if somehow he does pull a Ludwick (maybe a 1% chance of that?) you can point to this post and say you called it.

Where can we start? OBP? OPS? Ah, forget it...

 
At 2:58 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Wouldn't that make him 100% of Pat Burrell, who the Rays just signed to a 2 year $16MM contract?

Just one more stupid move by that org. They keep this up, they'll never sniff the playoffs, let alone the WS.... Oh, oops!

 
At 5:10 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Thank you for the kind words and praise.

Actually I don't know what I meant by 90%. Maybe win shares or some such measure of bulk value, if he were allowed to play everyday.

Projected linear weights value above average:
Dunn +16
Burrell +13
Gomes +7

All stink at fielding. Replace either of the others with Gomes and it costs you no more than 1 win.

If he's given a chance he'll beat out Dickerson and Hopper. It's not like the Reds are defensive fetishists - how many years have they started Griffey and Dunn?

 
At 5:59 PM, Blogger Justin said...

They do seem insistent on moving to a new model, which supposedly will focus on defense. Course, you could argue that this is because defense is all they have, given that their offense sucks. They also have (shockingly, in my view) completely failed to address the issue with Encarnacion at 3B. This was a perfect opportunity to move him to LF and they're going to let it pass by. -j

 
At 8:57 PM, Blogger Kenny "MVP" Anderson said...

And fuck you cowards that post anonymously with derogatory comments. If you don't like the blog, then piss off.

 
At 9:02 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Now Kenny...behave. Only fat yodas spew profanity.

 
At 11:06 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

As a Reds fan, I hope Gomes doesn't make the team. He has the potential to be an average hitter for a LF, but is an awful fielder. Norris Hopper may not have power, but at least he's a .312 lifetime hitter who hit .340 in AAA. And Hopper can field and didn't have a huge falloff in the last 2 years.

The Reds are under new management. Walt Jocketty somehow took the Cardinals to the World Series, so he knows what he's doing.

 
At 8:31 PM, Blogger Cody Oakes said...

I hope that you are right! And I agree this is a great move for the reds its a LOW RISK HIGH REWARD move..If he makes the team, hits 30 HR's great...if not, no big deal the reds are paying kids in foreign countries under 18 more then that.

As for 90% of Dunn I dont think is accurate with the RBI's and OBP but that'd be great.

 
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