Player of the Day: Derek Lowe
Derek Lowe signs with the Braves for 4 years and 60 million. It's a bit more money than my system evaluates him, but pretty close. The Mets' offer of 3 years and 36 million wasn't in the same ballpark. The Braves have put together a pretty good rotation with Lowe, Kawakami, Vazquez, Jurrjens, and Campillo, even if Tim Hudson misses the entire year.
With Lowe, the Braves could be planning on winning by never letting the ball out of the infield. He always gets plenty of groundballs, and the Braves have an outstanding infield and catcher. Lowe could keep the outfielders from having to participate on defense, but unfortunately they still have to bat their outfielders. And last year they only hit slightly better than the pitchers.
On the Kawakami projection, I should point out that the system used is the same one that nailed Hiroki Kuroda's stats last year. I don't see players coming over from Japan as unknowns. Sure, sometimes a guy is supposed to be great and turns out to be a fat toad, but American pitchers don't always pitch like you expect them to either. I've seen enough pitchers come over from Japan that I'm as confidant in their projections as I am for MLB pitchers - and more than I am for minor league pitchers.