Tuesday, January 13, 2009

Player of the Day: Derek Lowe

Derek Lowe signs with the Braves for 4 years and 60 million. It's a bit more money than my system evaluates him, but pretty close. The Mets' offer of 3 years and 36 million wasn't in the same ballpark. The Braves have put together a pretty good rotation with Lowe, Kawakami, Vazquez, Jurrjens, and Campillo, even if Tim Hudson misses the entire year.

With Lowe, the Braves could be planning on winning by never letting the ball out of the infield. He always gets plenty of groundballs, and the Braves have an outstanding infield and catcher. Lowe could keep the outfielders from having to participate on defense, but unfortunately they still have to bat their outfielders. And last year they only hit slightly better than the pitchers.

On the Kawakami projection, I should point out that the system used is the same one that nailed Hiroki Kuroda's stats last year. I don't see players coming over from Japan as unknowns. Sure, sometimes a guy is supposed to be great and turns out to be a fat toad, but American pitchers don't always pitch like you expect them to either. I've seen enough pitchers come over from Japan that I'm as confidant in their projections as I am for MLB pitchers - and more than I am for minor league pitchers.


At 10:28 AM, Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

I read your article on comparing Jim Rice vs. Brian Downing, and i just wanted to say it was load of mularky and totally biased.

You can try to make the comparison with every stat Bill James feeds, however, here is the truth of the matter...

Jim Rice (career)

- .298 /.352/.502/.854/ 128 OPS+
- 8225 at-bats, 2452 hits, 1249 runs, 373 doubles, 382 hr's, 1451 rbi, 670 bb's, 4129 total bases
- '78 MVP
- Finished in top 5 of MVP voting 5 times, in 11 full seasons (135+ games)
- 6 time All-star
- Average at-bats per HR = 21.5
- Average at-bats per RBI = 5.67
- Average at-bats per Run = 6.59
- Average at-bats per Base = 1.99

compared to...

Brian Downing (career)

- .267/.370/.425/.795/ 122+
- 7853 at-bats, 2099 hits, 1188 runs, 360 doubles, 275 hr's, 1073 rbi, 1127 bb's, 3340 total bases
- 0 MVP's
- Finished in top 5 of MVP voting 0 times, in 10 full seasons
- 1 time all-star
- Average at-bats per HR = 28.6
- Average at-bats per RBI = 7.32
- Average at-bats per Run = 6.61
- Average at-bats per Base = 2.35

Honestly, you're either biased, delusional, or nuts if you really think Brian Downing is even in the same breath as Jim Rice.

There is absolutely no comparison between the two, no matter how you stat geeks try to break it down and convince yourself otherwise.

At 10:40 AM, Blogger Just-in-Cincy said...

Also, here is a comparison I did last week regarding Jim Rice's career rate of production vs. HOF players such as Reggie Jackson, Eddie Murray, Dave Winfield, and Tony Perez.

Here are the results:

Jim Rice (career)

-.298/.352/.502/.854/ 128 OPS+
- 8225 at-bats, 2452 hits, 1249 runs, 373 doubles, 382 hr's, 1451 rbi, 670 bb's, 4129 total bases
- '78 MVP
- Finished in top 5 of MVP voting 5 times, in 11 full seasons (135+ games)
- 6 time All-star
- Average at-bats per HR = 21.5 (at-bats for every HR)
- Average at-bats per RBI = 5.67
- Average at-bats per Run = 6.59
- Average at-bats per Base = 1.99

Reggie Jackson (career)

- .262/.356/.490/.846/ 139 OPS+
- 9864 at-bats, 2584 hits, 1551 runs, 463 doubles, 563 hr's, 1702 rbi, 1375 bb's, 4834 total bases
- '73 MVP
- Finished in top 5 of MVP voting 5 times, in 14 full seasons
- Average at-bats per HR = 17.5
- Average at-bats per RBI = 5.79
- Average at-bats per Run = 6.36
- Average at-bats per Base = 2.04

Dave Winfield

- .283/.353/.475/.828/ 130+
- 11,003 at-bats, 3110 hits, 1669 runs, 540 doubles, 465 hr's, 1833 rbi, 1216 bb's, 5221 total bases
- 0 MVP's
- Finished in top 5 of MVP voting 3 times, in 17 full seasons
- 12 time All-star
- Average at-bats per HR = 23.7
- Average at-bats per RBI = 6.00
- Average at-bats per Run = 6.59
- Average at-bats per Base = 2.11

Eddie Murray

- .287/.359/.476/.835/ 129 OPS+
- 11336 at-bats, 3255 hits, 1627 runs, 560 doubles, 504 hr's, 1917 rbi, 1333 bb's, 5397 total bases
- 0 MVP's
- Finished in top 5 of MVP voting only 5 times, in 16 full seasons
- 8 time All-star
- Average at-bats per HR = 22.5
- Average at-bats per RBI = 5.91
- Average at-bats per Run = 6.97
- Average at-bats per Base = 2.10

Tony Perez

- .279/.341/.463/.804/ 122 OPS+
- 9778 at-bats, 2732 hits, 1272 runs, 505 doubles, 379 hr's, 1652 rbi, 925 bb's, 4532 total bases
- 0 MVP's
- Finished in top 5 of MVP voting 1 time, in 15 full seasons
- 7 time All-star
- Average at-bats per HR = 25.8
- Average at-bats per RBI = 5.92
- Average at-bats per Run = 7.69
- Average at-bats per Base = 2.16

As you see, Rice was better than everybody mentioned above on this list (all HOF'er's), in terms of rate of production, except for Reggie Jackson.

And even when compared to Reggie, he tops Jackson in two out of the four majories categories, on rates of production.

To honestly say he doesnt deserve to be in the hall of fame, or to even try to compare him to a player like Brian Downing, is a travesty in itself and really has no justification at all.

Clearly, Rice was a more productive player (in all 4 categories) than Winfield, Murray, and Perez; and was just as good of a hitter (if not better) than Mr. October himself.

Anyone who questions his status as a HOF'er, obviously hasnt done there homework!

At 5:13 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Pretty weak. Even the stats you quoted show Rice with a lower OPS+ than all but Perez. Who I also would not have voted for in the HOF.

Comparing players without accounting for ballpark and league is a fool's game.

If you think Rice was better than Downing, you should be able to tell me how many wins in his career he was worth compared to Downing. My analysis is right there in the THT article. If I'm wrong, then where am I wrong? By how much?

Support your answers with a legitimate argument and I might change my mind. Saying Rice hit more homers per at bat is pretty weak, considering that the linear weights formula I used already accounts for homeruns.

At 5:33 PM, Anonymous Jeff said...

I have to agree with Chone on this one. Nearly every stat you quote outside of MVP and All-Star voting (the only one's not in their control, of course) look very even. Without any park adjustment and just looking at the raw stats you provide make Rice look only a little better than Downing. And then when I consider that Rice accumulated his stats in Fenway, it really detracts from the argument. I am no Angels fan and no Red Sox fan, but they are more comparable than I thought. Thanks Just-in for making it even more clear to me.

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