Saturday, December 27, 2008

Projection updates

I've added the latest round of player signings in, added a few players who didn't have 2009 projections (very little time in 2008, or even injured for the year), and corrected a few cases of having variant names result in 2 projections for a player (Josh Outman and Joshua Outman, for example), and in general made what corrections I was aware of.

21 Comments:

At 5:30 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Are these updates available at the same site as previous?

 
At 6:58 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Yes, they just over-wrote the previous pages.

 
At 8:14 AM, Anonymous Rudy Gamble said...

Hey Chone -
Great job as always with the projections.

We would like to use your projections as the base for our Razzball Fantasy Baseball Point Shares (see http://razzball.com/2009-fantasy-baseball-projections-ftbotr/ for our Marcel-based estimates).

Wondering if you have any advice about converting the plate appearances to more realistic levels. If we applied outside PA estimates, is it accurate to assume the same R/HR/RBI/SB rates per PA? Or is the best method to just pull out all the hitters who do no appear to have starting positions (and keep the others at projected PA levels)?

Thanks,
Rudy

 
At 9:05 AM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

I don't know what the best method is. You'll have to decide what's best for your purposes.

Keeping the same rates per PA seems fine. Just be sure to include a link to baseballprojection.com.

 
At 2:02 PM, Blogger patsen said...

Again, I'm just cross-referencing the 40-man rosters. I know Matusz, Tazawa and others aren't projectable, but too much information is better than too little.

Also, on the Mets, you have Jonathan Niese and Jonathon Niese, who appear to be the same player.

Missing players
ARI: Jonathan Coutlangus, Clay Zavada
BAL: Jim Hoey, Brian Matusz, Troy Patton
BOS: Miguel Gonzalez, Junichi Tazawa
COL: Samuel Deduno
DET: Macay McBride
FLO: Harvey Garcia
MIL: Mark Rogers, Cody Scarpetta
NYY: Andrew Brackman
PHI: Michael Zagurski
SDP: Matt Bush, Wilton Lopez, Jackson Quezada
SEA: Stephen Khan, Jason Vargas
STL: Josh Kinney
TEX: Willie Eyre
TOR: Luis Perez

Changed teams
Eric O'Flaherty (SEA) to Braves
David Weathers (FA) to Reds
Jason Grilli (DET) to Rockies
Zachary Simons (COL) to Tigers
Todd Coffey (CIN) to Brewers
Robert Swindle (PHI) to Brewers
Scott Patterson (NYY) to Padres
Gaby Hernandez (FLO) to Mariners
Reid Santos (CLE) to Blue Jays

 
At 9:51 PM, Anonymous Rudy Gamble said...

Thanks Chone. We'll definitely be providing a link to baseballprojection.com on our site. For the 'CHONE' Point Shares, we're going to keep AB as is and just limit the listed players to those that Marcel projects as over 300 ABs or rookies that we think will have significant roles.

 
At 11:20 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Dont you think your pitching projections need a little work?

Only 1 pitcher wins more than 15 games
No pitcher has more than 200 K.
Only 5 pitchers have more than 200 IP

I can understand fluctuations with individual players but to have across the board undprecidented low projections seems a bit strange.

 
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