Tuesday, December 23, 2008

User's guide for the Projection Site

I put this up in order to explain some of the numbers found on baseballprojection.com.

7 Comments:

At 1:00 AM, Blogger Colin said...

are the league averages going up shortly as well?

 
At 2:06 PM, Blogger patsen said...

I was cross-referencing the data with the current 40-man rosters. I only got the hitters done, but you might appreciate the list of discrepancies I found:

TRADED PLAYERS
Jose Bautista (PIT) to Blue Jays
Brad Snyder (CLE) to Cubs
Wilkin Castillo (ARI) to Reds
Robinzon Diaz (TOR) to Pirates
Jose Tabata (NYY) to Pirates
Anderson Hernandez (NYM) to Nationals
Josh Willingham (FLO) to Nationals

FREE AGENT SIGNINGS
Rafael Furcal to Dodgers
Wes Helms to Marlins

MISSING PLAYERS (on 40-man rosters)
Tony Abreu to Dodgers
Francisco Cervelli to Yankees
Angel Pagan to Mets
Dayan Viciedo to White Sox
Yonder Alonzo to Reds
Norris Hopper to Reds
Hector Gomez to Rockies
Lou Palmisano to Astros
Mike Rivera to Brewers
Deibinson Romero to Twins
Rob Bowen to A's
Yung Chi Chen to A's
Pedro Alvarez to Pirates
Everth Cabrera to Padres
Luis Durango to Padres
Mike Morse to Mariners
Steve Holm to Giants
Conor Gillaspie to Giants

 
At 5:13 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Thanks. It really is a bear to keep up with all the player movement. If made a few changes that are on your list, and the others are in my master list next time I rerun the players.

A few (Alonso, Alvarez) I just don't have enough data to make projections for. Yet. I don't use college data for any of this.

My plan is to have some updated projections during the season, so guys like that will get a look.

 
At 5:15 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Colin, for league averages just assume last year's average. That's what went into the regression.

Depending on the mix of players who get playing time, the projected league averages could be different. But I have not added them up yet.

 
At 9:36 AM, Blogger patsen said...

Yes, I knew of the college players, I didn't comment since the message was long enough as is.

I'll continue the cross-referencing, and let you know if I find more discrepancies. I'm only looking at the 40-man rosters, so I won't notice many minor league transactions (like Carl Loadenthal from Braves in Rule 5)

 
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