Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Projections! Free!

Sabermetric Fans and Fantasy Baseball players,

Merry Christmas.

My gift to you is a brand new website dedicated to providing free CHONE projections. The site is called baseballprojection.com

Right now the site is still under construction, but enough has been done to put the team pages up for hitters. The last column, "Expanded" contains links to very detailed projection information, such as percentiles, multi-year projections, and a dollar valuation. For a preview of what these pages will look like, check out Mike Napoli, Brandon Wood, Chone Figgins, Torii Hunter, and Vlad Guerrero.

The column "R150" is linear weights runs above average, adjusted for league and ballpark - due to the AL's superior record over the last few years, the same performance in the NL will earn a lower R150 value than in the AL.

Pitcher team links are on the front page, however no pitching projections are ready - It will likely be a few weeks.

If you blog, please help spread the word.

38 Comments:

At 7:58 PM, Anonymous devil_fingers said...

you are awesome

that is all

 
At 8:11 PM, Blogger Victor said...

Love it. Thanks!

 
At 8:45 PM, Blogger Vegas Watch said...

Great stuff.

 
At 10:31 PM, Anonymous Aaron B. said...

Thanks Rally!

 
At 10:45 PM, Blogger Joshua said...

Do you have an excel sheet available for download with all of the players together? Hopefully seperated by hitter and pitcher but I'd like to be able to sort them around if possible. Thanks in advance for the reply and the hard work in providing these.

 
At 6:17 AM, Blogger Justin said...

Echoing the kudos of everyone else. These are my projections of choice. Love the idea of having an accessible site dedicated to them.

A few quick things.

1. Like Joshua, I'd also really like to be able to download a *.csv or whathaveyou of your projections like you allowed in prior years when you're ready to release it. One of the things I've always liked is that you included retrosheet ID's in your files, which made them so much easier to use (and match up to your fielding projections!).

2. From your data, I'm getting a wOBA on Jeff Keppinger of 0.339, and a wOBA of Brandon Phillips of 0.338. And yet Kepp's R150 is -4 while Phillips' R150 is -9. Kepp's only projected to get 75 fewer PA's than Phillips. Any ideas?

3. If you get a chance, I'd be interested to see what your system thinks about Alex Gonzalez. Didn't play last year, but is supposedly going to start at SS for the Reds this year...

Thanks!
Justin

 
At 8:04 AM, Blogger J Imhoff said...

Totally awesome stuff as usual! If there is a downloadable spreadsheet, I'd be interested!

CHONE is awesome!

 
At 10:45 AM, Blogger Harry Pavlidis said...

Thanks much. Doing what I can to spread the word.

 
At 11:15 AM, Anonymous Chone said...

Getting a lot of requests for a spreadsheet. I think that can be arranged, once I get all the data up there.

Good question on Kepp/ Phillips. For one, playing time doesn't matter as the r150 column is runs per 150 games or 625 pa. It is calculated on the player's park neutral stats, as opposed to their actual stats and then a park run adjustment.

I think what it's showing is that Phillips is better suited to taking advantage of his park, CIN is good for homers but not much else. I think a park like Boston would favor Keppinger. I'll have to check.

 
At 8:37 PM, Blogger Pat Senechal said...

Just to make sure, the numbers on the team pages are for the team's home park (FA would have to be park neutral), while R150 is park/league neutral, and adjusted for position, right?

Just want to make sure I'm reading these in the right context. Great work on publishing these so early!

 
At 5:42 AM, Blogger Justin said...

Phillips is pure power (for a middle infielder, anyway), so that might explain it. Sounds like you (or CHONE, rather) think he'd be a much worse looking player in a park that wasn't so permissive with homers. I'm surprised it's that much of a difference, but that's pretty interesting. -j

 
At 6:02 AM, Anonymous Chone said...

R150 is park/league neutral, but is not adjusted for position.

 
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