Tuesday, December 09, 2008

Hall of Very Good

Creating a list of the best players retired for 5+ years, Willie Mays (153 wins) and Hank Aaron (148) come out on top, shouldn't surprise too much. Going down the list, every player with at least 73 wins (Gary Carter) above replacement (WAR) is in the Hall. Every eligible player that is, sorry Charlie Hustle. So 73 is the magic number for HOF inclusion.

There are 7 players between 70 and 73, but only two are in the HOF, Carlton Fisk and Eddie Murray. The other five are the the greatest members of the Hall of Very Good.

They are:
Tim Raines (72), best of the group
Lou Whitaker
Reggie Smith
Willie Davis
Ron Santo

Before I did this systematically, I thought 60 WAR was a strong qualification for HOF inclusion, but there are 23 players over 60 but under 70, and only 7 have made it to Cooperstown. They are: McCovey, Winfield, Killebrew, Stargell, Sandberg, Billy Williams, and Banks. Lessons learned: Get your counting stats, your 3000 hits or 500 homers, or be a Cub with a working pancreas.

The second tier of the HOVG:
Bobby Grich
Graig Nettles
Alan Trammell
Buddy Bell
Keith Hernandez
Mark McGwire
Jimmy Wynn
Andre Dawson
Willie Randalph
Dwight Evans
Dick Allen
Darrell Evans
Ken Boyer
Will Clark
Sal Bando
Bobby Bonds

There are 17 players in the 50-60 range. Only two, Tony Perez and Luis Aparicio, are in the hall.

Then there are 45 players in the 40-50 range. This is the lower tier of the HOVG, but three players of this group have made it to the HOF: Kirby Puckett, Orlando Cepeda, and Lou Brock. These are very questionable choices for the Hall, as there are many better players who have not received the honor. If Jim Rice (43 WAR) makes it this year, this is his group.

For now I'll settle on 40 WAR as the minimum standard for the Hall of Very Good. The dividing line is Bobby Murcer, in, Rick Monday (39.9) out. Maybe I'll have to go a bit lower to 35 or so - some players just below 40 who would commonly be described as very good: Harold Baines, Dave Concepcion, Doug DeCinces, Tim Salmon.

This is all subject to revision, there is a good chance that I'll need to adjust the position adjustments - they work for the most recent era, 2000+, but may need to be changed a bit for the past.

8 Comments:

At 9:39 PM, Blogger KJOK said...

..every player with at least 73 wins (Gary Carter) above replacement (WAR) is in the Hall.

Ricky Henderson has been retired 5 years, and if he's not above 73, I think something is amiss...

 
At 6:04 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think I preemptively put Rickey in the HOF group. Or else I counted him on the wait list, as he's up this year. He certainly has not been rejected (at least yet) by HOF voters.

And we need to call for their heads if he is. Rickey is well over 100 wins.

 
At 11:43 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

One other note. There have always been multiple Hall of Fame types. Many roads to get to one destination. This is interesting analysis but for a complete discussion shouldn't we look at metrics for the different paths? The way I see it (and certainly I may be on the wrong track here and there will obviously be overlap within each group) I would expand the discussion to:

Elite and Obvious Hall of Famers - This is the place you would find players like Ruth, Mays, Cy Young, Williams. The players where little or no argument exists. They are in because 99% of the baseball world would agree regardless of criteria.

Club Members - the Club folks. 500 HR, 3,000 Hits, 300 Wins, etc. These typically get you in immediately unless you are part of a scandal (See Rose and McGwire). And most of these players would be in the first group, but may be subject to debate.

Peak Value Players - This is the group where players had a career shortened by injury or just suddenly lost their skills, but still put up some remarkable seasons. These players are often hotly debated, but there are many in (Koufax, Puckett, Kiner, Hack Wilson) and many are out (Murphy, Mattingly, Will Clark, Jim Maloney, Denny McClain, Roger Maris).

Negro Leaguers - Obvious group. Trying to right a past injustice. Debate usually begins and ends with discerning reality from legend.

Managers - Sometimes a managerial record is used to justify a supplement to a borderline player. (Schoendienst and seems to be happening a little with the Torre argument of late)

Champions - There are players that get elected based on their Championship reputation or their association with a particular dynasty or championship team (Lefty Gomez, Phil Rizzuto, etc). And many of these players get in through the next group...

Cronyism - This is the group that got in because they were alive and they had friends on the veterans committee. (Rizzuto, Maz, Ferrell, Kell, Doerr, Schoendienst, and on and on).

This last group has probably caused the greatest heartburn among Hall of Fame debaters. I used to be one of those who advocated hitting the reset button to correct these inane choices. Over the years, I have changed my mind. I used to get offended over the sanctity of the Hall being diminished by allowing people like Phil Rizzuto in. But now I realize, what's the difference? Who is it hurting? In my opinion the hall may have originally been designed to recognize the best players of all time as defined by a small group of experts. Over time it seems to have evolved into a place for any good player that has a decent size group of people that admired or enjoyed watching them play and valued them enough to bestow a special honor to recognize and officially appreciate the player. And at the end of the day, I'm fine with that. If a player is borderline, put 'em in. Give 'em a plaque. Give a day of appreciation. If it takes a little thunder away from Rickey's speech next year or Maddux in a few years, so what? I think we passed the point of exclusivity around 1945 and 1946 when the original Veterans Committee decided to open the floodgates.

And like I said at the beginning, I am sure I am missing things here, and I am not married to any of it. Just a perspective out here in cyberspace.

 
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