Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Projected Runs Scored

Using the team pages from baseballprojection.com, I'm taking a guess at how much playing time everyone gets, making sure that all positions are covered and that outs (AB-H+CS) add up to 4100 per team. I'm not really paying attention to batting order, other than obvious stuff, like making sure Figgins has more projected PA than the catchers.

For the Angels I assume these starters:
C Napoli
1B Kowbell
2B Kendrick
SS Aybar/Izzy split
3B Wood
LF Figgins
CF Hunter
RF Rivera
DH Vlad

The west teams:
Texas 805
Angels 758
Oakland 745
Seattle 692

Since Texas couldn't win with 901 runs last year, I'm not worried about them. Their pitching is still crap. Oakland looks to have an improved offense, some of their guys just had off years and Holliday is a big plus. They only allowed 690 last year so 745 runs might make them a contender. But Oakland traded all their starters last year, and the team ERA was about a run and a half higher in the second half. They will need their young pitchers to develop quickly, and if I count them out, then they'll have 3 rookies with sub 3.50 ERA's. So, I will proclaim them a contender, and hope the reverse jinx works. Seattle's offense looks like San Francisco's last year. Scary as a baby kitten. Angels only scored 765 last year, so not much dropoff, and they'll go as far as the pitching takes them. We're not going to hand a closer 70 save opps again and beat pythag by 12 wins, but the Angels shouldn't have to - they still look to be kings of the west.

I ran the top 3 East teams as well. I get this:

Yankees 871
Red Sox 866
Rays 781

That's after Tex. The American League dodged a bullet when the Red Sox were too cheap to get the Tex deal done. He's 30 runs better than Mike Lowell or Xavier Nady, so add 30 to the Red Sox and take 30 off the Yankees and that would have been ugly. The Red Sox are still a very good team, but they can be beat. I think if they had Tex they would have run away with the American League. The Rays offense looks about the same as last year, but they have room to make a big improvement if they can add a DH/OF like Milton Bradley.

I haven't looked at the central or NL. And I don't want to get too far into this until a few more free agents fall into place.

120 Comments:

At 11:15 AM, Blogger SG said...

Hmm, I did the whole AL Easthere with CHONE and got:

Bos: 882 RS
Nyy: 865 RS
TB: 807 RS
Bal: 779 RS
Tor: 712 RS

 
At 8:54 PM, Anonymous Zach said...

When doing the team projections you make an estimate of individual playing time--why don't you just use that as projected PA instead of the calculations you use?

 
At 5:03 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Time. The playing time on the site is done through a formula. Consider it the estimate playing time that CHONE thinks the player is capable of playing, which may be in the majors or minors.

When I set playing time for the team projections, many of the players will have playing time set to zero, which kind of destroys the value of giving them a projection. I want to be able to look at a team's organizational depth, even if I don't expect many of those guys to sniff the majors.

 
At 9:10 PM, Anonymous Aaron B. said...

"Seattle's offense looks like San Francisco's last year. Scary as a baby kitten."

Harsh on the baby kitten.... and I hope your projections are close with the Giants in 2009.

 
At 11:24 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

But you've gotta love the Giant pitching after signing the unit. Weird how the #5 starter will make more $ than the rest of the rotation combined.

 
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