Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Seattle and Defensive Inefficiency

The Mariners have the worst defensive efficiency in the American League, which makes it impossible for pitchers like Silva, Batista, and Washburn, who don't miss many bats.

They have one good defender, Adrian Beltre. Ichiro rates as an average CF so far this year, according to my calculations based on the zone rating stats from the Hardball Times. Who's killing the defense?

Yuniesky Betencourt was supposed to be a defensive wiz, but comes in at -12. I don't know if he still has his defenders, but it's hard to make a case for the numbers being wrong when you've got the tangible evidence (team DER, groundball pitchers getting killed) that points in the direction of this guy not getting the job done.

Raul Ibanez is a -4 so far, that's actually better than usual for him. That's no surprise, he's not in there for his glove.

No other Mariner comes in at worse than -2, with Jose Lopez at -1. This is where the observation does not match up with the stats. Granted I only watch the Mariners when they play the Angels, but if you asked me, without looking at stats, which Mariner is the worst defender relative to position, I'd pick Lopez.

There have been a lot of ground balls hit to second, and my reaction off the bat (based on my experience watching similar hit balls) is "Damn, another ground out to 2nd" Then, to my delight, it rolls just past the reach of Lopez.

If I ran this team I'd be looking to replace both middle infielders, plus Sexson, Ibanez, Vidro, and a few of the pitchers. Hard to believe this team gave us a scare last season, it looks like it will be awhile before they do so again.

14 Comments:

At 10:50 PM, Blogger DrFunke said...

Chone-

Wish you posted more, always enjoy reading your musings. Anyways I had a question about the defensive projections you created at the beginning of the year. Are those +/- numbers based off a full season and in terms of runs saved and lost? Do you update at all during the season or did you post the methodology behind them at any time?

Thanks
Mike

 
At 7:18 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

Those are runs saved/lost per full season. I did it during the offseason, and have not done any updating, nor do I plan to.

The methodology is to take the last 3-4 years (can't remember exactly right now), weight them with more recent years counting more, regress to the mean, and apply an aging adjustment. Sort of a fielding Marcel.

Thanks. I wish I could post more, but I've got a 2 month old baby, and she takes priority.

 
At 8:26 PM, Blogger DrFunke said...

Thanks Chone, congrats on baby!

 
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