Sunday, April 20, 2008

NBA Win Shares, 2007-08 season

I came up with this system shortly after Bill James published win shares for baseball. It could probably use some updating but I don't have the time or motivation to do so. I think it does a reasonable if not perfect job of rating players, and in his excellent book Basketball on Paper, Dean Oliver briefly reviews the system and basically says it doesn't suck. So I'll put the numbers for another year on my site:

Latest season

The latest 3 seasons can be found on this page.

I don't watch the NBA much anymore. I don't think I've ever seen Chris Paul play, but he had quite a season. He'd be a fine MVP choice as would Lebron James (who I've seen play quite a bit). Kevin Garnett would have probably run away with the award for the way he turned the Celtics around but it's hard to say what the voters will think of him since he played less than 2400 minutes. For all I know Garnett might still win it.

The other numbers on the page include rating, my version of the Tendex rating, but adjusted not for game pace but for opponent points scored. Rebound percentage is rebounds as a percentage of total rebounds when the player was on the floor - 10% is obviously an average figure. Adjusted shooting percentage is points divided by (FGA*2 + FTA). If you take 6 shots and score 6 points, you will rank the same regardless of whether you hit 3 2-pointers or 2 3-pointers.

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