Park Factors, single year
So far in 2006. Some weird stuff. The Coors humidor has been documented, but Texas a pitchers park? Washington a hitters park? Is Soriano to blame for this all by himself?
All factors have been divided by 2, i.e. if I say the park factor is 1.05 you can take that players RC or baseruns or whatever and divide by 1.05.
Here they are: Park Factors
posted by Chone Smith @ 8:46 PM
14 comments
14 Comments:
Hey, cool blog. I found it because there was a link to it on Halos Heaven. My first impression after skimming some of the recent entries is that you're a realistic Angel fan with an eye on stats. A lot of the people at Halos Heaven scoff at any mention of OPS. It's pretty funny - they seem to pretend that stats don't mean anything sometimes.
Anyway, I'll be visiting this site regularly to see what you come up with.
Thanks. I wish I could say I'll update it regularly, but there are times when I go a long while between posts. I try and keep it interesting when I do post.
Halos Heaven is definitely the #1 Angels site. Anaheim Angels Blog (BTF's BlackHawk Waterloo) is a real good one too.
SORRY NOT BUYING IT AS A LEGITMATE MEASURE OF ANYTHING...
Ya think the fact that the Angels have the League's 2nd best pitching staff has anything to do with skewing their stadium's ranking, or is it a too small sample size, or are stats the word of god and not allowed to be questioned?
I mean, in 2000, THE BIG A was a hitter's park, what with Mo Vaugn and Troy Glaus and GA and Kigfish all in their power primes - HA, Park Facors... cold hard stat or ridiculous measuring device?
Does that even merit a response?
Other than,"Gee, d'ya think we're dumb enough not to factor all that into the formula to produce a park factor that [em]isn't[/em] skewed by the team playing its home games there?"
Why then are park factors swaying based on who the whome team is? OR should I ask you how astrology works, as the exculaptory language would be clear and concise...
typo = HOME team. Bottom line, park factors' shifting indicates it is not a reliable gage, but again, the Full Moon might reveal the truth if we all hold hands.
Rev, our pitching staff, as you may have noted, also pitches on the road. There are just less runs overall in the Big A.
Of course, park factors halfway through a season can be somewhat unreliable as you haven't necessarily played an equal amount of games in each park yet. So Rally Monkey's giving us a snapshot of where they are now.
By posting this year's park factors I'm not suggesting they are gospel or anything.
Just like whoever, during a Texas Rangers broadcast throws "DeRosa, .345" on the screen is not telling you Mark DeRosa is the new Wade Boggs.
I'm just posting what has happened. Don't get worked up over it.
And certain Angels very well may be skewing the park factors - Santana, with his crazy home road splits. In his case I think it has to do with confidence and familiarity than the park itself.
The kind of thing he can outgrow with experience.
I've updated the park factors again, I've set up an easy enough to run query so I can probably keep this up to date on a weekly basis.
Even one game can change things. Thanks to Lackey's shutout the big A now rates as the #1 pitchers park.
That was kinda my point... that park factors are not independent of the team playing in them. If this is agreed - then what use are they?
They are useful over a longer period. Things will even out, Big John will throw shutouts at home and on the road, and Ervin's splits will not be as wild for his whole career- he's already starting to pitch better on the road.
If I was using park figures to adjust RC or ERA or something, I might use 80% of what the park factor was coming into the year, and about 20% of the current year.
The current year factors will swing wildly, if the Angels play a 16-12 game at home they won't rate as the top pitchers park anymore.
Single year factors are most interesting for teams in new parks (Washington) or where something has changed (Colorado and the humidor)
For the Angels and most teams you're better off using a multiyear park factor.
Addressing Rev's concerns about stats he doesn't understand and, therefore, hates:
Not sure how these park factors were calculated, but if they're calculated correctly, the quality of the team should not matter.
I'll try to explain it without using any formulae for those who hate that sort of thing.
You look at how many runs a team scores at home versus how many runs it scores on the road. If it scores more runs at home, that indicates it is a hitters' park and vice versa.
As you can see, since you keep the team constant and the only variable is the ballpark, the team should not matter.
But, yes, it is a small sample size and can vary month to month or even year to year. I don't pay a whole lot of attention to park factors but they can be fun to glance at.
The Rev has a point.
Lets say you have a talented rookie pitcher, but he pees his pants every time he has to make a start on the road.
Or you have a lefty pull hitter who can take unique advantage of a short right field porch. In some cases the makeup of your team will mess with your park factor.
Its also true that things like this will even out the more seasons you have to calculate park factor.
Best regards from NY! » »
Post a Comment
<< Home