Saturday, February 07, 2009

Pitcher projection update

I've rerun all the pitcher projections after adding in minor league data for batted ball types, and updating the team defensive projections based on player changes of the offseason. About half the pitchers had some change in ERA, for the most part they were not huge changes.

22 Comments:

At 5:25 AM, OpenID bodhizefa said...

Did the move to Safeco up Garrett Olson's k-rate or was it the defensive upgrade behind him that would bump up his innings or was it the added minor league batted ball data? Just curious, as he's now got a 4.24 ERA as opposed to the 4.88 he shows on FanGraphs.

Thanks for any and all help in clearing this up!

 
At 11:52 AM, Anonymous Chone said...

A little of all 3. I ran all the changes at once so I can't isolate what was the biggest factor.

I suppose I could rerun him on Baltimore to see how much the BB data helped.

 
At 7:18 PM, Blogger Chone Smith said...

If I project Olsen back with the Orioles I get 4.65 - partly due to the BB mix and partly due to an Oriole defensive upgrade - Izturis at short and Pie in the outfield.

So the rest is the Seattle defense and ballpark.

 
At 4:39 PM, Blogger Matt said...

Any idea when you'll update the download links?

When you move a player from the free agent pool to the team page (like Abreu), do you apply the new park effects? I think you do but I couldn't compare the two to be sure.

 
At 10:48 PM, Blogger Bodhizefa said...

Many thanks for taking a close look at Olson, Chone. Keep up the excellent work!

 
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