Defensive Projections
Ready for 2009, You can find them here:
http://home.comcast.net/~briankaat/statsite.html
These are based on 5 years of data from 2004-2008, weighted 1, .8, .6, .4, .2. The numbers are a combination of Stats ZR, Revised Zone rating, and Totalzone (which is not available for 2008). Instead of regressing these to a league average, the regression is to a run value derived from the Fan's scouting report. The more a player has played, the more his rating is based on his stats. The less he has played, the more it is based on his scouting report.
Adam Everett is still rated the best shortstop at +19, but it's a steep drop from the +31 he had last year. With his bat, +19 probably isn't good enough to make him a starter, and given his decline on the fan scouting report, he may not even be that good.
posted by Chone Smith @ 10:40 PM
69 comments
links to this post
69 Comments:
This is fabulous, thanks!
Just to clarify, is this roughly your methodology:
1. Calculate a weighted ZR, RZR, and TotalZone estimate for each player.
2. Take the average of those estimates (with some accounting for TotalZone only being through 2007).
3. Regress to Tango's FSR runs saved estimates, based on innings?
Thanks!
Justin
Great stuff!
Is there anyway you can incorporate John Walsh's outfield arms from THT? If you think those are good, haven't really heard many opinions on it, but they look good. I don't think he has released his 2008 ratings yet though.
Justin, you got it. Pretty close, I use chances instead of innings. For RZR, chances is balls in zone opportunities + plays out of zone.
anon - These ratings are for range only. John Walsh's ratings are very good, but I have my own. I'll do mine for 2008 when Retrosheet updates, I think sometime in December.
Are these per 150 games at each position? Or are they based on projected playing time? Pretty sure it's per 150 or so games, but just making sure.
Thanks!
Good stuff Mr. Smith.
I was just wondering where the projection for Giants 2B Kevin Frandsen was. He did miss most of the 2008 season, and while I'm expecting him to be below-average with the glove, I'm still curious to see what various projections are predicting for him.
Thanks again.
These are per 150 games. I'll check on Frandsen and let you know.
Frandsen: Average at 2B, -8 at short. No idea how health affects that.
Thank you Chone.
Just for fun I looked up the numbers for the two teams currently playing in the W.S. I used Baldelli for RF, but most of the other starters have remained the same. I excluded catchers, as I didn't see numbers for the Phillies catcher Ruiz. The totals came out to +26 for the Rays and +26 for the Phillies. The Phillies pretty much had the advantage throughout, until Pat Burrell's number (-14) came out. So what does this +26 mean? Is this saying that the Rays and Phillies defense saves .173 runs per game? Or .173 runs per game above average? or replacement?
Thanks!
vr, Xei
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