Best Players
Using park adjusted linear weights above replacement level, position adjustments, and defensive runs saved based on RZR (find it on Hardball Times)
National League
1. Jones 71
2. Pujols 70
3. Utley 66
4. Berkman 66
5. Beltran 50
6. Wright 49
7. Holliday 49
8. McCann 47
9. H Ramirez 43
10. Braun/Teixiera/Ludwick 40
Utley gets credit for an insane 27 defensive runs, but all the top guys have good gloves. I'll pick Pujols as the MVP as he's more likely than Jones to keep throwing up the numbers the rest of the way. Beltran isn't getting the love he deserves. He's not having his best season, but is the best CF in the league and still a solid hitter.
American League
1. Sizemore 51
2. A-Rod 41
3. Markakis 38
4. Mauer 38
5. Roberts 38
6. Longoria 38
7. Hamilton 37
8. Drew 36
9. Bradley 34
10. Damon/Beltre/Upton 33
13. Hunter 31
The best in the AL aren't having nearly as dominant years as their counterparts in the NL, but that may be a case of superior competition leading to decreased variance. Sizemore has probably been the best player in the league but unlikely to win the award with the Indians playing so poorly. A-Rod can probably win it if his play is the difference that knocks the Red Sox out of the playoffs.
I wonder if a Torii Hunter bandwagon can start here. The numbers say he's a good CF, +2, but the perception of his defense is more like that of a +10 to +15 guy. If the Yankees fail to make the playoffs, and A-Rod doesn't get support, I could see people start to consider the player having the best all-around year on baseball's best team.
TORII HUNTER FOR MVP!
posted by Chone Smith @ 7:40 PM
40 comments
links to this post
40 Comments:
Looking at WPA changes things a bit - replace runs over average with WPA*10 and leave the defense & position the same.
Hamilton moves to the top of the list at +54, followed by Sizemore and Mauer at +49. Hunter moves up a bit to +36. A-Rod drops off the map, his +34 batting runs has only produced +0.7 WPA. He has not been clutch this year.
Does this include positional adjustments?
Yes.
1b -10
dh -15
rf/lf -5
ss/cf +5
c +10
3b/2b 0
You've seen what Justin's put together, right?
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/08/2008-total-value-estimates-through.html
How do your offensive methods and position adjustments compare to his? Note that his fielding numbers are an average of STATS and BIS zone ratings.
"I'll pick Pujols as the MVP as he's more likely than Jones to keep throwing up the numbers the rest of the way."
I agree that Pujols will likely outplay Jones the rest of the way, but...if the season were over today, then that argument doesn't hold. If you want to give the edge to Pujols because they are statistically close and the Cards are having a better season, I can go with that. But in my book, Chipper is the MVP so far. Let the rest of the season play out and in October, we can reassess.
On the AL front, doesn't your point about Sizemore really strengthen the argument for KRod rather than Hunter??
Also, where does the insane Aubrey Huff rate?
I've said this many times before, but context-neutral linear weights (which is what lwts is - context-neutral, depending upon whether you park or even opponent adjust, of course) is a terrible gauge for an MVP award. Of course it will generally closely track how a player does in high leverage situations, it will closely track RBI and runs scored, and will closely track how a player is perceived in terms of his "value" to a team. But in no, way, shape or form should it be the gold standard.
In fact, I find it ludicrous to even use it as a starting point.
A player can have great lwts and do virtually nothing to help his team win. And vice versa. Within certain limitations of course. Not to mention the fact that there is no clear definition of what "helping to win" or "valuable" even means. For example, some people think that if a player keeps providing win advancement (as when he has a high WPA) then he was valuable, regardless of whether his team actually won any of those games or not. Another camp, which I happen to be in, but I don't really care much one way or another, is that if a team doesn't actually win those games in which a player contributes in terms of win advancement, then that player has provided no value whatsoever.
Pretty much the same thing with positional adjustments, and certainly the voters do not much consider positional value.
So the only thing this list does for me is tell me who has the best context-neutral stats, offensively and defensively. That is it. If you want to discuss MVP, you had better discuss and invoke a lot more than that. Not that a discussion of MVP interests me. It doesn't. One man's MVP is another man's non-MVP and that is the sum total of it as far as I am concerned.
MGL
"How do your offensive methods and position adjustments compare to his? Note that his fielding numbers are an average of STATS and BIS zone ratings."
Don't know, I tried to open his spreadsheet and got a server error. Does google limit how many people can download a spreadsheet? Justin does good work though, and it sounds similar. By averaging Stats and ZR he's going to have better defensive numbers than me, but I wasn't going to do that much work (most of the work is in getting the player names to match up).
This is just something I put together in a about 2 hours last night when I had a bit of time.
"That is it. If you want to discuss MVP, you had better discuss and invoke a lot more than that. Not that a discussion of MVP interests me."
MGL, those are some strong suggestions (using phrases like "you better..") for a topic that you say doesn't even interest you.
I'm not any more interested in a precise scientific conclusion of who is most valuable. It's a list of the best players, context neutral, a few musings on what the MVP voters might be looking for, and a hope that, whether he deserves the award or not, that an Angel will win it.
This is after all, first and foremost an Angels blog.
For the Angels, I think Hunter is the best candidate, but if the voters give it to K-Rod (yes, I know he has not even been the best closer in the league) I'll just say holy Willie Hernandez 1984, Batman, and be happy for him.
"and certainly the voters do not much consider positional value."
And MGL, perhaps I am wrong, but it sure seems like the voters most certainly consider positional value. In fact, last year's NL MVP vote is an excellent example of it. Holliday out slugged, homered, out RBIed, out OnBased, and out hit Rollins but Rollins won the vote. Do you really think his position wasn't taken into consideration?
There are several other examples through the years where the MVP didn't always have the best numbers, but got the votes because they were a catcher or a middle infielder. Not to say the voters are consistent in their methods, but positions do come into play.
And Chone, I completely agree about KRod. My point was giving the MVP to a hitter for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim would be highly unlikely. At least if KRod gets the record, it puts him in the conversation. It got Pigpen a 5th place in the voting in 1990.
Of course the White Sox weren't even a playoff team.
Well, I'd say we can attribute tonight's win directly to Big Tex. The question is can he do it in the postseason?
Big Tex has been everything the Angels could have hoped for. I still miss Kotch because he's part of the Angel family, but Tex is one hell of an addition. Hunter made 2 incredible catches last night too, give part of the win to him.
you predicted the Rays will allow over 200 fewer runs this year than last year.
They are on pace to save 302 runs from one year to the next!
They are also on pace to score 42 less runs,giving them a net gain of +260.
- a poster at draysbay.com
if c.c. is going to get serious consideration for NL cy young, teixeira should get some on the AL side. i mean, according to your argument, the best player on the best team might just be considered. tex is definitely the best player on the angels right now.
"you predicted the Rays will allow over 200 fewer runs this year than last year.
They are on pace to save 302 runs from one year to the next!"
Awesome. I apologize to all Ray fans for my pessimism in the preseason predictions. Angels are obviously in the playoffs, of all the teams we might face I fear the Rays the most.
I am telling you. You are slipping. Next year, can you do us all a favor and try to predict more accurately? Some of us are trying to pay the rent!
A study last yearnike tn, the author in the essay read NIKE , a reporter at the Shanghai headquarters in an interview, nike chaussuressee a pr in high school to read a league plans, employees interviewed told reporters in Beijing's streets, they children to interview, the children said, "truly understand them." tn chaussures These words, if the author touches product function, brand spirit and culture is to become part of the consumer of two basic methods
puma basketBlack is lubricious, can match, but young people don't want to match with brunetpuma femmes, can try even cardigan knitting coat will appear lively cap. Boys and girls, puma CATcan choose to choose self-cultivation
nike max shoes, one of the world's three major brands of Puma shoes, will build its factory in Lanshan county next year, Hunan province. Taiwan Diamond Group of Footwear production chooses its base in Lanshan county, which is one of top 500 companies in the world.mens clothing men's sweate, cheap columbia jackets, lacoste sweater, ralph lauren polo shirts,ski clothing. Free Shipping, PayPal Payment. Enjoy your shopping experience on mensclothingstore.Us
Paypal payment. Free shipping. cheap ugg boots ,UGG Online Store,australian cheap ugg boots ,ugg boots australia,UGG Online Store,black ugg boots,ugg boots on sale,cheap uggs. Very Cheap!Vente en ligne de discount chaussure sport : chaussure puma, chaussure nike, chaussure tn, nike tn,nike requin, puma future cat, nike shox torch, ugg boots et plus.
nike air max ltd is divided into sports life and NIKE NIKENIKE air shoes sports mark for a big hook (swoosh)NIKE life (NSW) mark is a hook NIKE swoosh (English) +
Sometimes life will sell NIKE sports channel,cheap puma mens shoes , enjoy shopping!ralph Lauren polo shirts , Lacoste Polo Shirts, Burberry Polo Shirts.wholesale Lacoste polo shirts and polo ralph laurenwith great price. clothingol.com offers lot of 10 lacoste polo shirts and lot of 20 cheap polo shirts. clothingol.com offers classic fit polo shirts. polo clothing
ed hardy clothing Online Store - We wholesale and retail cheap ed hardy shirts
g including Ed Hardy Men's Clothing, ed hardy womens Clothing,Ed Hardy Kids Clothing, Ed Hardy Sunglasses, Ed Hardy Swimwear and more.
Bought the Tennis Racquet is important, exercise can reduce the harm, especially for the wrist injury. But the good of Tennis Racket in general in the real prices are more expensive, so a lot of websites now have cheap tennis racquet,tennis racquet discount,cheap tennis racket,discount Tennis Racket .
ralph lauren poloburberry polo shirtthe north face jacketcolumbia jacketspyder jacket
Thank you. In your memo, which we looked at a moment ago -- and perhaps we should have cheap lacoste polos back on the screen, Production 1562, image 4. In your note ralph lauren polo shirts here you speak, I think, in the first paragraph about a previous meeting; is that wholesale polo shirts so?
ed hardy clothing ed hardy clothes ed hardy shirts ed hardy t-shirts ed hardy mensed hardy womens ed hardy sunglasses
Our store provide New babolat pure drive, feel more soft,and greatly reduced the previous disadvantage of wilson k six hard and shock-absorbing.With the Cortex System head microgel,Aero Modular Technology, and Woofer technology,the prince-o3-tour has so much put into ball control its not only going to give you the maximum control but cheap tennis racquets will give you a faster swing.
polo ralph lauren integrates two types of luxury and leisure style ralph lauren polo shirts, now more and more popular men’s burberry polos“thin” sense, most designers have sought to perfect the cut with “cutting” polo women clothing a bag of bones polo logo of the body. It is amazing that a tight lacoste polo shirts with pencil pants, full of retro style with a European aristocratic culture of leisure. Color of polo shirts in vogue, including white polo shirt, pink polo shirt, blue polo shirt , and yellow cheappolos , timely reflects the mainstream of men’s summer fashion colors polo fashion.
chi straightener
cheap handbags
Lacoste polo shirts
chi flat iron
women's nike shoes
I like your blog. Thank you. They are really great . Ermunterung ++ .
Some new style Puma Speed is in fashion this year.
chaussure puma is Puma shoes in french . Many Franzose like seach “chaussure sport” by the internet when they need buy the Puma Shoes Or nike max shoes. The information age is really convenient .
By the way ,the nike max ltd is really good NIKE air shoes ,don’t forget buy the puma mens shoes and nike air max ltd by the internet when you need them . Do you know Nike Air Shoes is a best Air Shoes . another kinds of Nike shoes is better . For example , Nike Air Rift is good and Cheap Nike Shoes .the nike shox shoes is fitting to running.
Spring is coming, Do you think this season is not for Ugg Boots? maybe yes .but this season is best time that can buy the cheap ugg boots. Many sellers are selling discounted. Do not miss . Please view my fc2 blog and hair straighteners blog.
.thank you .
I like orange converse shoes ,I like to buy the cheap converse shoes by the internet shop . the puma shoes and the adidas shoes (or addidas shoes) are more on internet shop .i can buy the cheap nike shoes and cheap puma shoes online. It’s really convenient.
Many persons more like Puma basket shoes than nike air rift shoes . the Puma Cat shoes is a kind of Cheap Puma Shoes .
If you want to buy the Cheap Nike Air shoes ,you can buy them online. They are same as the Nike Air shoes authorized shop. Very high-caliber Air shoes and puma cat shoes . the cheap puma shoes as same as other.
polo shirts
ralph lauren polo shirts
chaussure puma
chaussure sport
chaussures puma
puma CAT
ed hardy clothing
ed hardy clothes
ed hardy womens
ed hardy sunglasses
Do you wannaghd hair straighteners for you own , we have many
cheap ghd hair straightenersin style and great,you can choose one from these
hair straighteners
Authentic chaussure puma
chaussure sport
And chaussure nike shoes
Come here to have a look of our Wholesale Jeans
Many fashionMens Jeans ,eye-catching
Womens Jeans ,and special out standing
Blue Jeans ,you can spend less money on our
Discount Jeans but gain really fine jeans, absolutely a great bargain.
www.crazypurchase.com
China Wholesale
wholesale from china
buy products wholesale
China Wholesalers
http://weddingdressseason.com
There are ed hardy shirts
,pretty ed hardy shirt for men,
ed hardy womens in the ed hardy online store
designed by ed hardy ,
many cheap ed hardy shirt ,glasses,caps,trouers ed hardy shirts on sale ,
You can go to edhardyshirts.com to have a look ,you may find one of ed hardy clothing fit for you
Top qualitymen's jacket,
These cheap jacket are on sale now,you can find
north face jackets inmage on our web
azcentral.com/members/Blog/discountjeans
ameblo.jp/mycooljeans/
coolgirlloved.blog.shinobi.jp/
pumashoescrazy.blog.drecom.jp/
pumafamouseshoes.cocolog-nifty.com
actiblog.com/mycoolshoes/
kurumaro.com/myshoescollection/
blog.qlep.com/blog.php/famouseshoes
mybrandshoes.jugem.jp/
ed-hardy-shirts.com/ed-hardy-shirts-show/
chaussuerpumamylove.blog126.fc2.com/
myfashioncollection.blog126.fc2.com/
community.fox2now.com/
sweetheartgirl.wordpress.com
www.soulcast.com/post/
lightblueeyes.blog.co.uk/
yellowbanana.blogsome.com
shiningeyes.edublogs.org/
edhardyclothingfashion.blogspot.com/
seriousblogging.com/mensjacketscool/
http://www.free-blog-site.com/alisasea
new polos men poloswomen polosdiscount polos
summer polospolo shirts whosalepolo fashionembroodered polos
tennis racketsclothing poloclothingedhardyshirt
edhardyclothingsummer ed hardy clothingcheap shirtsed hardy brand
cheap ed hardypolo shirts cheapcheap tennis racketsdiscount tennis rackets
ralphlaurenpoloshirtscheappolospolo fashionpolo logo
Andy Roddick's signature babolat pure drive, Pure Drive Roddick Babolat wilson k six, features GT Technology combined with head microgel and prince-o3-tour, versatile and accurate cheap tennis racquets with unparalleled performance and incredible feel with less vibrations.
Look ！The shirt for men's clothing,ed hardy clothing, The ed hardy clothes on each piece were created ed hardy shirts and is recognized globally for his technical brilliance and mesmerizing imagery.Short sleeves ed hardy mens and ed hardy womens , remember to check out ed hardy t-shirts because they are very popular in demand too!Combination with ed hardy sunglasses,very handsome.
The button to break the conventional design of polo shirts, the depth of clear lines of wholesale polo shirts from the Department of V on the first gives the impression of a unique, tailor-made with dark-green Lacoste polo shirts with the color scheme of Red and the casual cheap lacoste polos, stressed a summer of non-traditional use of color, so that the overall shape ofralph lauren polo shirts is full of flavor. The classic black-and-white cheap ralph lauren polos with matching black-and-white striped discount ralph lauren polos elegant leaves the impression that the import of polo clothing and black shoes brighten even more people.
polo ralph lauren integrates two types of luxury and leisure style, now more and more popular men’s “thin” burberry polos, most designers have sought to perfect the cut with “cutting” a bag of bones of the body ralph lauren polo shirts. It is amazing that a tight lacoste polo shirts with pencil pants, full of retro style with a European aristocratic culture of leisure cheappolos.
cheap hair straighteners
chi hair straightener
chi flat iron
new polo shirts
cheap Lacoste polo shirts
cheap Lacoste polo shirts
cheap handbags
cheap bags
puma chaussures
chaussures puma
chaussure puma
Men's North Face
Women's North Face
hair straighteners
sexy lingerie store
cheap ugg boots
tattoo wholesale
men's clothing
women's clothing
2009 nike shoes
new nike shoes
Women's max
Men's max 93
nike shox
Nike air force
Nike air max 2003
nike air max ltd
nike air max tn
Nike air rift
Nike air Yeezy
nike airmax
Nike air max 90
Nike air max 97
nike birds nest shoes
nike dunk
nike RT1 shoes
nike SB
nike shox shoes
Nike shox OZ shoes
Nike shox R2 shoes
Nike shox R3 shoes
Nike shox R4 shoes
Nike shox R5 shoes
Nike shox TL3
nike trainers lovers
tennis rackets
Wilson tennis rackets
HEAD tennis rackets
Babolat tennis rackets
I like your blog . They are really great. Ermunterung ++ .please pay a return visit to my blog .thank you
http://iblog99.edublogs.org/
http://iblog99.blog126.fc2.com/
http://iblog99.blogsome.com/
Post a Comment
Links to this post:
Create a Link
<< Home