Best Players
Using park adjusted linear weights above replacement level, position adjustments, and defensive runs saved based on RZR (find it on Hardball Times)
National League
1. Jones 71
2. Pujols 70
3. Utley 66
4. Berkman 66
5. Beltran 50
6. Wright 49
7. Holliday 49
8. McCann 47
9. H Ramirez 43
10. Braun/Teixiera/Ludwick 40
Utley gets credit for an insane 27 defensive runs, but all the top guys have good gloves. I'll pick Pujols as the MVP as he's more likely than Jones to keep throwing up the numbers the rest of the way. Beltran isn't getting the love he deserves. He's not having his best season, but is the best CF in the league and still a solid hitter.
American League
1. Sizemore 51
2. A-Rod 41
3. Markakis 38
4. Mauer 38
5. Roberts 38
6. Longoria 38
7. Hamilton 37
8. Drew 36
9. Bradley 34
10. Damon/Beltre/Upton 33
13. Hunter 31
The best in the AL aren't having nearly as dominant years as their counterparts in the NL, but that may be a case of superior competition leading to decreased variance. Sizemore has probably been the best player in the league but unlikely to win the award with the Indians playing so poorly. A-Rod can probably win it if his play is the difference that knocks the Red Sox out of the playoffs.
I wonder if a Torii Hunter bandwagon can start here. The numbers say he's a good CF, +2, but the perception of his defense is more like that of a +10 to +15 guy. If the Yankees fail to make the playoffs, and A-Rod doesn't get support, I could see people start to consider the player having the best all-around year on baseball's best team.
TORII HUNTER FOR MVP!
posted by Chone Smith @ 7:40 PM
37 comments
37 Comments:
Looking at WPA changes things a bit - replace runs over average with WPA*10 and leave the defense & position the same.
Hamilton moves to the top of the list at +54, followed by Sizemore and Mauer at +49. Hunter moves up a bit to +36. A-Rod drops off the map, his +34 batting runs has only produced +0.7 WPA. He has not been clutch this year.
Does this include positional adjustments?
Yes.
1b -10
dh -15
rf/lf -5
ss/cf +5
c +10
3b/2b 0
You've seen what Justin's put together, right?
http://jinaz-reds.blogspot.com/2008/08/2008-total-value-estimates-through.html
How do your offensive methods and position adjustments compare to his? Note that his fielding numbers are an average of STATS and BIS zone ratings.
"I'll pick Pujols as the MVP as he's more likely than Jones to keep throwing up the numbers the rest of the way."
I agree that Pujols will likely outplay Jones the rest of the way, but...if the season were over today, then that argument doesn't hold. If you want to give the edge to Pujols because they are statistically close and the Cards are having a better season, I can go with that. But in my book, Chipper is the MVP so far. Let the rest of the season play out and in October, we can reassess.
On the AL front, doesn't your point about Sizemore really strengthen the argument for KRod rather than Hunter??
Also, where does the insane Aubrey Huff rate?
I've said this many times before, but context-neutral linear weights (which is what lwts is - context-neutral, depending upon whether you park or even opponent adjust, of course) is a terrible gauge for an MVP award. Of course it will generally closely track how a player does in high leverage situations, it will closely track RBI and runs scored, and will closely track how a player is perceived in terms of his "value" to a team. But in no, way, shape or form should it be the gold standard.
In fact, I find it ludicrous to even use it as a starting point.
A player can have great lwts and do virtually nothing to help his team win. And vice versa. Within certain limitations of course. Not to mention the fact that there is no clear definition of what "helping to win" or "valuable" even means. For example, some people think that if a player keeps providing win advancement (as when he has a high WPA) then he was valuable, regardless of whether his team actually won any of those games or not. Another camp, which I happen to be in, but I don't really care much one way or another, is that if a team doesn't actually win those games in which a player contributes in terms of win advancement, then that player has provided no value whatsoever.
Pretty much the same thing with positional adjustments, and certainly the voters do not much consider positional value.
So the only thing this list does for me is tell me who has the best context-neutral stats, offensively and defensively. That is it. If you want to discuss MVP, you had better discuss and invoke a lot more than that. Not that a discussion of MVP interests me. It doesn't. One man's MVP is another man's non-MVP and that is the sum total of it as far as I am concerned.
MGL
"How do your offensive methods and position adjustments compare to his? Note that his fielding numbers are an average of STATS and BIS zone ratings."
Don't know, I tried to open his spreadsheet and got a server error. Does google limit how many people can download a spreadsheet? Justin does good work though, and it sounds similar. By averaging Stats and ZR he's going to have better defensive numbers than me, but I wasn't going to do that much work (most of the work is in getting the player names to match up).
This is just something I put together in a about 2 hours last night when I had a bit of time.
"That is it. If you want to discuss MVP, you had better discuss and invoke a lot more than that. Not that a discussion of MVP interests me."
MGL, those are some strong suggestions (using phrases like "you better..") for a topic that you say doesn't even interest you.
I'm not any more interested in a precise scientific conclusion of who is most valuable. It's a list of the best players, context neutral, a few musings on what the MVP voters might be looking for, and a hope that, whether he deserves the award or not, that an Angel will win it.
This is after all, first and foremost an Angels blog.
For the Angels, I think Hunter is the best candidate, but if the voters give it to K-Rod (yes, I know he has not even been the best closer in the league) I'll just say holy Willie Hernandez 1984, Batman, and be happy for him.
"and certainly the voters do not much consider positional value."
And MGL, perhaps I am wrong, but it sure seems like the voters most certainly consider positional value. In fact, last year's NL MVP vote is an excellent example of it. Holliday out slugged, homered, out RBIed, out OnBased, and out hit Rollins but Rollins won the vote. Do you really think his position wasn't taken into consideration?
There are several other examples through the years where the MVP didn't always have the best numbers, but got the votes because they were a catcher or a middle infielder. Not to say the voters are consistent in their methods, but positions do come into play.
And Chone, I completely agree about KRod. My point was giving the MVP to a hitter for the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim would be highly unlikely. At least if KRod gets the record, it puts him in the conversation. It got Pigpen a 5th place in the voting in 1990.
Of course the White Sox weren't even a playoff team.
Well, I'd say we can attribute tonight's win directly to Big Tex. The question is can he do it in the postseason?
Big Tex has been everything the Angels could have hoped for. I still miss Kotch because he's part of the Angel family, but Tex is one hell of an addition. Hunter made 2 incredible catches last night too, give part of the win to him.
you predicted the Rays will allow over 200 fewer runs this year than last year.
They are on pace to save 302 runs from one year to the next!
They are also on pace to score 42 less runs,giving them a net gain of +260.
- a poster at draysbay.com
if c.c. is going to get serious consideration for NL cy young, teixeira should get some on the AL side. i mean, according to your argument, the best player on the best team might just be considered. tex is definitely the best player on the angels right now.
"you predicted the Rays will allow over 200 fewer runs this year than last year.
They are on pace to save 302 runs from one year to the next!"
Awesome. I apologize to all Ray fans for my pessimism in the preseason predictions. Angels are obviously in the playoffs, of all the teams we might face I fear the Rays the most.
I am telling you. You are slipping. Next year, can you do us all a favor and try to predict more accurately? Some of us are trying to pay the rent!
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